Bendigo Cup Day

Cup day at Bendigo today and very challenging day in prospect for punters.We start with three maidens each of which has a clear stand out form choice but all with negatives attached:-
Race 1 Star O'reilly.Only managed one run each prep-stable not firing
Race 2 Sharnee Rose.Placed 9 from 13 including third at G1-poor run latest
Race 3 Divine Moon.Third in G2 resuming-well held Listed grade latest
Anyone planning to steam into the shorts on either or all of these will need to make sure they are wearing their brown trousers today.
The supporting handicaps are super tough to unravel and make no appeal punting wise but I will be very active today on the lay side of the exchange.
The Cup is meant to be an open and competitive handicap but only 12 runners line up (conditions allow for a maximum of 18 plus 4 emergencies) and the two "top weights"are carrying only 55kg with rest all on 54.5kg.This weight compression is fast becoming an epidemic in feature handicaps and Saturday races in Victoria and is ruining the competitiveness of the racing as a result.Last week at Geelong only seven horses lined up for the Cup and predictably it was a jog and canter until the last 600m.
Practised is early favourite at 3.0. He's a progressive stayer who won well last time at Caulfield,draws well and has C Williams steering.He's rated 78 on official ratings whilst the top weight here are both rated 92 so he should be receiving 7kg but because of the compressed weights only gets 0.5kg.He's too badly handicapped to be favourite here and is far too short.
Puissance De Lune is next best at 3.3.He too is progressive and ran very well last time although beaten by an atrocious ride.This race is his Spring "Grand Final" as his owner is the race sponsor and he comes here at his peak.He too though is badly handicapped receiving only 0.5kg when he should be getting 4kg.There is a doubt about him running 2400m-his dam was a miler and bred to be one.His sire Shamadal can get horses that win over ground but he is really bred to be a 1600/2000m horse so you have to factor the doubt about the trip into his price.Drawing the outside gate means he will probably go back and rely on luck.3.30 is far too short all things consdered.
Silent Surround finished 2.8lenths fifth behind Shawardi in the G2 Herbert Power last time.This was his best ever performance and proved he stays the trip.He draws well and has D. Oliver riding.He is running off his correct handicap mark and really should be favourite.I have him 4.0 and he is generally 6.0 this morning.
Either back Silent Surround or lay both Practised and Puissance De Lune or do all three trades if your fearless!