Tuesday 16 October 2012

Caulfield 1000 Guineas Day

On paper today's renewal of Caulfield's 1000 Guineas is the weakest I can remember.It has more the look of a Group 3 than a G1.Perhaps if anything is to come out of the race looking a genuine G1 performer it might be Molto Bene who was excellent last finishing powerfully of a wide run.Her get back style is a worry in race where there is no guarantee of a strong pace but she does draw well and has the right pilot on board.She'll love the mile and is the one to beat.She's a little skinny at around 4.25 but she may trade around 5.20 on Betfair and at that price I would be playing.
In race 5 I think Specter is big overs at 15.0.He'll probably press on and lead here and he may take some running down.He looked big resuming and was run down after booting clear on the turn.He's 3.90 a place if you shop around.Great EW value this one today.
Mares races are often a trap but it's hard to look beyond Oasis Bloom and Star Of Giselle in Race 7.These two will almost certainly dominate from the front.It's 3.10 each of two in early markets.I think Oasis Bloom should clearly be on top at around 2.70.Currently 3.20 on Betfair which I'll be dipping into.
In Race 4 I cannot go against Sertorius or Tribal Rock.I think one or the other will win but don't want to get involved at the cramped odds here.
Super Cool looks hard to beat in Race 3 but again 2.6 just doesn't appeal.
In the final event the import Picture Editor is very interesting at 11.0.He ran on well at MV last time and his UK form is very good for a race like this.He may be better over further in time and he may be giving them a start but 11.0 is way too big.

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