Friday 19 September 2014

Caulfield ( Underwood Stakes) & Randwick (George Main Stakes)

Both venues host G1's today and the Spring is in full flow now.
Caulfield is a Good 3 and it's generally dry but still an odd shower around but clearing-expect fast conditions.
Randwick is a Dead 4 and drying out.An upgrade seems likely at some stage.Later rain is forecast bur probably doesn't reach the track till racing is over.

This is a very tricky day in my opinion. Some obvious chances but no value in them

Caulfield

Race 1
Don't want to oppose Zeletto but 1.70 is very short

Race 2
Too tricky to evaluate with any confidence

Race 3
Anatina is the obvious if she can carry last prep's improvement through into this one. Generally I'm very reluctant to take shorts about mares resuming. Rifleman has improved this prep. Kencella's first try in Melbourne was a let down at the Valley but if he bounces back from that he's a live hope here.
It doesn't end there and very easy to pass here.

Race 4
Watch and learn

Race 5
Mares handicap and many hopes. Good luck

Race 6
Spillway is a likable horse but he has to concede weight all round here and I'm not at all sure that he is the best horse here. Most will be giving it their best shot as none of them currently rate high enough to guarantee a Caulfield Cup start. Bonfire developed a bad reputation in England as a bookies horse and there is a inkling he may be better with cut in the ground.Foundry is better than his two woeful efforts this Spring and a return to form wouldn't entirely surprise. Our Voodoo Prince promises to be a better horse here than he was in the UK.He's on track for a big run today. Entirely Platinum isn't really a wet tracker and there is definitely more to come from him.
May do something here but not committed yet.

Race 7
Silent Achiever is better than these clearly on achievements to date. Doubt she's be penalised in the Caulfield Cup if she won here as she is well on top on official figures.Will she be fit enough today is the question you have to consider. Maybe but probably not at the top of her game. Foreteller and Happy Trials are likely to be just about ready now and both can win. Stipulate need to improve again to be competitive at this grade. His win last time was excellent and he traveled very strongly throughout in that race suggesting there is more to come.
May do something here but not committed yet

Race 8
Very hard to evaluate with any real confidence other than to say that Samaready back to her best would be winning. Real market confidence would have here around 3.00. She's 4.40 into 4.0 this morning but that's not really anything overly strong at this stage.
Passing here

Race 9
Trust In a Gust is an admirable racehorse. Very genuine and consistent. He's hard to beat here but 2.20 is unders. Cauthen did beat both Shamus Award and Long John last Spring and he only has a mark of 82 although effectively he has to race off 89 today. Lucky Husstler ran very well on his first start for D. Weir last time. Pin Your Hopes resumes after a very good prep last time
Maybe a bet here



Randwick

The first two favs Black Revolver and Rock Sturdy both look unders to me at current2.15 and 2.50 respectively. there may be a couple of speculative bets here later on. Overall it looks a difficult card.

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