Tuesday 16 September 2014

Mornington & Newcastle Today

Metro meeting at Morninton and it's posted a Dead 4 with showers now around. how much rain they bring to the track is not easy to predict and it was a dry morning there until an hour or so ago. I'm making no commitment to anything there today until I see what the ground and the pattern is.
Newcastle has it's first day of it's two day Spring Carnival and in truth it's a pretty lacklustre offering.
It's posted a Dead 4 there but it's dry so an upgrade should happen at some point. The two feature events are the two Group 3's the Spring Stakes and the Cameron Handicap. I cannot personally remember either of these races looking as weak as they do today.
Just the one early bet there at speculative odds:

Newcastle

Race 7
The Autumn equivalent of this race is the Newmarket handicap run over coarse and distance at the track's Autumn Carnival. Slow Pace was first up in that race back in March and ran a fine race finishing third beaten half a length.That was a stronger race than this is and a similar run will see him around the money here. He's had a quiet trial again just like before his effort in the Newmarket. Bowman rides and hopefully he can be a little closer to the speed today. 16.0 (longer on the totes) is big overs in a race that is not easy to price up with any degree of confidence.
I'll stake him as a 9.0 chance.

Advised Bet: Slow Pace 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-take the 16.0 with Bet 365 with the tote guarantees for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance

Doubt there will be more bets at Newcastle but there are races of definite interest at Mornington depending on track conditions and how markets move. Further bets and updates sent via Twitter

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