It's dry in Melbourne on the eve of the Cup. Chance of a little rain tomorrow and a cool change is forecast for late afternoon bringing very strong wind gusts. If it arrives earlier then it may be a factor especially if it brings rain as well. At this stage though it looks like good decent ground.
Overseas runners and imported stayers plus the constricted weight scale have dramatically altered this race over the last dozen years. It's a handicap of course but only genuinely high class horses win these days and two thirds of the field are impossible to fancy at all if your a serious form analyst.
I'm not emphatic about any particular horse this year but I think it's odds on the winner comes from a batch of five runners. That presents a real punting opportunity if you shop around and get the best offerings available. If you choose three of the serious hopes and save on the other two you should average around 2.00 your stake and that's a very attractive proposition as the true odds are nearer to 1.65. I know that doesn't sound a very attractive proposition to the majority of punters but that's probably how I'll play it. Anyone of these five is "overs" at their overnight quotes although Lucia Valentina and Fawkner are only marginally so on my figures.
My top five in order are:
Signoff- 51kg's and the best is yet to come-peaks perfectly and has the momentum
Protectionist- unexposed and terrific trial run-almost certainly better than bare form reads
Admire Rakti- Caulfield Cup the best trial and strong winner-only a 0.5kg penalty
Lucia Valentina- Equal of winner in Caulfield Cup. May need luck from gate getting clear passage
Fawkner- Good from hopeless position last year-second Cox Plate and sure to be thereabouts
Outside these Who Shot The Barman may still have scope to do better and My Ambivalent has a very good fresh record and would be a serious contender had she not had an interrupted preparation and a query at the trip.
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