Caulfield is a Good 3 and it's dry. Whether that Good 3 is actually a Dead 4 to begin with ( I suspect it is ) the early races will tell us. It'll keep getting faster as the day goes on so top of the ground horses should be suited.
Randwick is a Dead 5 and it's drying out all the time so expect an upgrade to a Dead 4 at some point. If there is anything at Randwick I'll send it via Twitter during racing.
Caulfield Cup
A bit below the usual standard this year I think.
Lucia Valentina is favourite at around 4.60 which is too short and I expect her to blow. Fast ground and 2400m are both niggling queries with her and whilst I concede she's a live hope I want to look elsewhere for the winner. My shortlist is the three Waller trained runners Junoob, Hawkspur and Who Shot The Barman and the Moody trained Brambles. I haven't finalized a strategy around these four yet but will send details through on Twitter during the afternoon.
Race 6
Sweet Idea to lead here and she's rock hard fit and will be hard to pass. Catkins and May's Dream have G1 races in mind so may only be 90% right today and Girl Guide has a bit to find to knock off Sweet Idea.
Advised Bet: Sweet Idea 1.75 units at 3.0 or better- you can have 3.40 with Sportsbet but only for loose change-generally 3.20 or less-take the 3.20 with Bet 365 (WG)for half the stake and monitor closely with balance as you may get better on Betfair at some point. I expect it to be very firm in betting close to the off
Other Bets/Updates sent via twitter during racing
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