Tuesday 26 August 2014

Sandown & Warwick Farm Today

Broke my front tooth last night so at the dentist this morning and everything late as a result. Missed some very tasty prices as a result.
I've already tweeted through a few early bets although I probably wish I hadn't as some are now longer.
Sandown is a Dead 4 upgraded from a Dead 5 and it's dry so another upgrade is possible as the day goes on.
Warwick Farm is a Heavy 10 and there is rain around so I suppose it's touch and go them getting through the meeting.

Warwick Farm

Race 5
If the meeting is still on by now then I think Eklands and Was Meant To Be are both overs at current quotes. I missed the best Eklands but 6.0 is still value against my rating of 5.0. Was Meant To Be has run well twice in city races recently and was particularly good of a wide run last time. He goes well in the wet and has a solid hope here-12.0 is overs

Advised Bet: Eklands 1 unit at 5.20 or better, 6.0 is still available and I think that will go
                      Was Meant To Be 0.60 units at 9.0 or better-some 12.0 available


Sandown

Race 5
This is very open but down at the bottom Forgeress is good value at a top priced 17.0 (was 26.0) earlier. Her best effort this prep (all runs have been good) was a strong finishing third at Caulfield on Dead surface in a better race than this. She acts on the wet but suspect she's a bit better on drier.

Advised Bet: Forgeress 0.45 units at 12.0 or better- take the 17.0

Race 6
I thought there were three strong hopes here in Belesron, Spencer Street and Vee Force . I have Belesron clearly on top though despite the other two having strong claims.Vee Force showed real talent early when with Simon Morrish but has obviously had problems and has landed with D. Weir down at the Wangoon stable. His first run for Weir was a real eyecatcher but he has looked mega promising before only to flop. Spencer Street probably still has a bit more to offer-he ran very well last time and the claim will help him today. Belesron was good here behind Olivier and then demolished the opposition last time. He has a 3kg claim too and of the 3 I thinks he's the most likely

Advised Bet: Belesron 1.35 units at 3.90 or better-already advised to take 5.0 but is now 6.50 with Bet 365 so maybe they know something that I don't!!

Race 7
Very open Mares race. Pindan Pearl has an obvious chance but too short at 3.50 I think. Lily Dazzler is going well and has been steady improver but her best form is on wet.Then acluster of half a dozen with claims including Abaleen who ran well last time and is suited by the extra 200m and gets a handy 3kg claim. Why this is such a big price escapes me but having advised it ew at 101.00 I'm a bit surprised to see it now at 126.0 with Bet365.It's massive overs

Advised Bet: Abaleen 0.20 units win and 0.30 units place at 17.0 or better. Was 101.00/23.00 at the time I tweeted with 365. Is now 126.00/26.0

All these will be logged as best advised in the blog but at the prices I sent through earlier.
Pretty sure there will be more today and Bets/Updates sent via Twitter 

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