Tuesday 2 September 2014

Sandown & Canterbury Today

Sandown is a Dead 5 and improving so there's a fair chance that it will upgrade.
Canterbury is a Slow 7 and it's missed the rain this morning but there is some working up from the South. If the rain misses it's very windy so it should dry out a fair bit but if the rain does hit then maybe it'll stay wet.Obviously monitor. Strong winds may be a factor too.

Canterbury R4
I'm right out of step with the market here. I have Nordic Duke at 7.0 MAX here yet he's available with Bet365 at 17.0. He's travelled up from Melbourne so maybe there is a negative attached to the journey. He's a point higher than when he last won and most subsequent efforts have been sound. There should be OK speed on upfront here to help him get home, he likes the wet and has a handy 3kg's claimer aboard

Advised Bet; Nordic Duke  0.60 units at 8.50 or better-take the 17.0

There may be more at Canterbury later via twitter


Sandown

Race 4
I like Zeletto and he'll be hard to beat.I also like Farolitos enough to stop me taking a thin price about Zeletto although a 1000m might be a bit sharp for him.
Does anyone have a rational explanation why an unraced horse can debut in a handicap with anything other than top weight? Hammered has had no trials or runs yet he's allotted 55.5 kg's.It's a benchmark 70. This is nonsense. It happened last year when a filly trained by Danny O'brien debued in a Saturday handicap of a low weight and beat the favourite. Surely if you want to bypass the maidens and go to a handicap untried you must get top weight. Greg Carpenter please explain!

Race 6
After the way he's gone over the last year I get wary thinking that one of D.K. Weir's is too short but despite Must Be Mink having solid claims here 3.40 is too short. Much more appealing is Elle Excite who won really well at Mornington and was well backed to do so. The extra 200m will suit her.The last win was on wet but she's proven on drier and has a nice gate. She has upside and I have her on top marginally here. 7.50 looks big overs but she's blown a bit this morning and is bigger on the totes.

Advised Bet: Elle Excite 1 unit at  5.50 or over- have 35% at the 7.50 and monitor closely with the balance.

Race 7
Yesterday's Songs is very obvious here and if all goes well in the run he'll be very hard to beat. I don't like gate 1 for get back horses though and he will need a good steer. At 2.50 I won't be playing.Mahican draws to be handier today and he's the other obvious hope.
When Fracking won his UK maiden he bolted up by 5 lengths. The runner up (was level weights) now races of a UK mark of 88 (translates to Aussie scale around 77). Here's Fracking of a mark of 67.
He made all at Goodwood that day and from gate 3 could lead here. If he's fit and ready he's overs here at 21.0

Advised Bet: Fracking 0.45 units at 12.0 or better-take the 21.0 with Bet365 as they have guarantees if it blows (best tote)

Race 8
Most of these are out for first up effort getting fitter for further. The 3 that look suited and are fit are Digitalism, Longeron and St Mark. By far the most appealing of that trio is Digitalism and he's a solid pecentage bet here. The other one that is interesting at odds is Martinvast who should push on from a wide gate.

Advised Bet Digitalism 1.15 units at 4.50 or better-take the 5.0 with 365
                     Martinvast 0.30 units at 19.0 or better-take the 34.0 with 365


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