Derby Day

A drying day at Epsom and it should be Good ground by the time racing gets under way.

The Derby

Dawn Approach surely wins if he gets the trip.It's a big if though and the earlier ante post red quotes are now extending out to a reasonable 2.75 and he may touch 3.0.I was very strong on stamina credentials for this race until a few years ago and it used to be the first thing I wanted to be sure of when evaluating the race.There always used to be a fair few runners- many making up the numbers to give their owners the prestige of having a runner.That used to virtually guarantee a strong pace early up the hill so any stamina doubts were usually cruelly exposed.Often of late they don't go very hard at all early even with supposed pacemakers so if they dawdle up the hill it's not anything like as demanding.You'd think the Coolmore team would be determined to draw the sting out of the favourite though by ensuring a strong pace.That ought to be the plan as I think it was when they were mob handed against Sea The Stars but it didn't happen as planned then and maybe won't today.I had slight doubts about Sea The Stars staying but couldn't resist backing him at 3.0 plus on the day and I'm almost talking myself into backing Dawn Approach as the odds lengthen.

The Dash

Normally I'd avoid this race like the plague but I'm having a bet this year.
I put Smoothtalkinrascal up on the blog early last month and he was turned over but with excuses.I was in hospital when he won at York but had a bit on just in case but obviously not enough.I know he's a 3-y-o against his elders but he's a smart operator in the making and there's no way I'm passing him up here at around 20.0 on Betfair.


Musselburgh


Edinburgh Cup

This is a really cracking 3-y-o h'cap.You can make a case for a few here but I'm very keen that Renew will be hard to beat.The race he was second in at Newmarket last time was super strong and he was a clear second best.The winner there,Brass Ring has Ebor /Melboune cup claims already in my book so highly do I rate the form.We'll go each way here as I'm sure Renew will place and there are some decent types who could improve a rung or two.



Advised Bets

Epsom

Race 4
Smoothtalkinrascal  0.45 units to win.Around 20.0 on Betfair now and that looks pretty good to me.
                                 Anything over 13.0 looks value

Musselburgh

Race 4
Renew                    1.35units EW.6.0 on offer now and anything over 4.0 looks appealing to me.