Royal Ascot Day Three

Duntle and Al Kazeem obliged for the blog yesterday with Montiridge narrowly failing to make it three from three after trading as low as 1.20 on Betfair.
Good to Firm is the going reading this morning and although there are some forecast showers later I doubt should they eventuate we are going to racing on anything worse than good.


Norfolk Stakes

Coach House heads the market at 3.50.He's entitled to be favourite but I couldn't back him at that price.It's a hard race to get a handle on confidently with plenty open to improvement.Not betting here.



Ribblesdale Stakes

Irish filly Alive Alive Oh heads the market at 3.50.She was super impressive winning a Listed event at Navan last month.All her form is on wet ground and she makes no appeal at current odds.This is a most difficult race to assess and you can make a credible case for half a dozen runners with another couple likely to improve from good stables.Couldn't possible advise anything here.


Gold Cup

This isn't as strong a race as it used to be and the betting market  is very open.Plenty of hopes with the bulk of the field fully exposed and unlikely to show much more than they already have.The exception is the Queens runner Estimate who is a lightly raced 4-y-o filly who was a decisive winner at this meeting last year taking out the Queens Prize.She is bred for the job.Her half brother Enzeli won this race in 1999.She's still improving and the extra trip is all in her favour and can see her improve again.Gate 5 is good and she can find a good trailing position.She is effective on dry and wet so no worries if the rain does come.I have her at 5.50 heading the market.She's touching 8.0 on Betfair and 7.0 with the bookies

Advised Bet: Estimate 0.90 units to win at 6.0 or better.Take 50% of the 7.8 on Betfair and monitor with the rest.


Brittania Handicap

I like this race and it has been very kind to me financially over the years.
Three "Group" horses masquarading as handicappers here in Wentworth,Cape Peron and Maputo.Lower down the weights and still unexposed is Llaregyb who is the one I would back if approaching this race one out as 17.50 on Betfair is too big.13.0 is my rating.Wentworth is favourite and rightly so.His effort over 6 furlongs against older seasoned sprinters when reappearing was excellent-he was held up and certainly would have won with any luck.He'll be much fitter and the mile will suit.The 2-y-o race he won at Newbury has been won by any number of star performers in the past.He is a bit of a blot on the handicap here and should have a fair bit more weight .He is the most likely winner and I have him at 4.5.Cape Peron routed the opposition last time and he too has the potential to be very useful.He is 8.0 on my figures.Maputo drops back in trip but with a fierce pace likely here that may not be a negative.He draws the other side of the course to the other three I like and of the low drawn horses I have clearly ahead rated at 10.0
I shall "Dutch" this race and shop on Betfair to try to get around 2.50 my four against the field.I have my four making up 52.41% of the book which rates their price collectively at around 1.90 This may appear a bit mad but a similar approach in this race has worked well for me netting the winner  around 50% of the time over the last few years.

Advised Bets :  Wentworth     1.10 units at 4.6 or better
                          Cape Peron    0.62 units at 8.0 or better
                          Maputo          0.50 units at 10.50 or better
                          Llaregyb        0.39 units at 13.50 or better
Shop on Betfair and monitor closely


Tercentenary Stakes

This event is most complex and there isn't a runner here that would genuinely surprise me by winning.No betting interest at all


King George V Stakes

The recent race that Bold Sniper won at Leicester looked a very hot heat to me beforehand but he absolutely demolished his rivals.The second there went in at Kempton last night so the form is franked.He'll improve again over this extra 2 furlongs and is a worthy favourite here.The negative is the outside gate.Had he drawn well I 'd have him 4.0 here but with the awkward draw I've got him 5.50.He owned by The Queen so expect him to be well backed

Advised Bet : Bold Sniper 0.90 units to win at 6.0 or better.6.50 on offer now and that may go-have 65% at the 6.50 and monitor the balance on Betfair