Monday 17 June 2013

Royal Ascot Day One

Day one of the Royal meeting and as usual it begins with three G1's.

Good ground posted but with the possibility of some showers this afternoon.A dry morning should see the ground almost Good to Firm by the time racing begins

Queen Anne Stakes

This has a very one sided look to it this year.There seems no reason why Animal Kingdom shouldn't give his running up the straight Ascot mile and if he does then he wins here.He's the only runner who has so far achieved the level of performance generally required to take out this race and without him it looks like a G2 event.The team behind this horse are very smart and he'd be a no show if they had any doubts about his ability to handle Ascot.Evens is overs and my figures have him 1.65

Advised Bet : Animal Kingdom 3 units at 1.80 or better-take the 2.0 for 50% and monitor on Betfair with the other 50% but don't leave it too late.


King's Stand Stakes

This is a race that the home runners struggle to win nowadays.3-y-o Reckless Abandon won two G1's as a 2-y-o and his comeback third was sound-he's the best hope the locals have.Sole Power is a sold performer coming of a fast pace on fast ground and he is a hope.
Shamexpress is a good sprinter but not quite as good as the Australian horses that have won here in recent years and whilst I respect him I'll be a tad surprised if he's good enough to win.
Shea Shea is a lightly raced 6-y-o with clearly the best form and the promise of more to come.Trained by M. De Kock he could hardly be in better hands.My figures have him at 2.70 so at the 3.50 on offer with the bookies looks decent overs.Currently 3.75 on Betfair.

Advised Bet : Shea Shea  1.85 units at 2.90 or better.Monitor on Betfair


St James's Palace Stakes

Listening to Jim Bolger talking about Dawn Approach prior to his 2000 Guineas win he made the point about how much work he'd had to pour into the horse in order to have him fit.My initial impressions straight after his Derby debacle when he pulled throughout was that he was a horse in need of a break.His Guineas win was totally dominant and if he can run to that level here then surely he would be very hard to toss.Maybe Derby day got to him and he'll be fine today but there is no way I could be tempted at current odds.I'm not playing here.I have too much respect for Bolger as a trainer to oppose his horse if he's happy to run.It looks a very good renewal and happy to just be an onlooker here.


Coventry Stakes

Occasional years I'll have a bet in this race but this year will not be one of them.Far too hard and happy to watch and learn


Ascot Stakes

Justification started favourite in the Chester Cup and endured a torrid run so you have to forgive his effort there.He has to be respected here.Well Sharp stormed through the mud to rout the opposition at York last time.He has to race off 10lb higher here on dry ground but nevertheless is not easy to dismiss.The best formline for mine is this race at Newmarket won by Tiger Cliff with Mubaraza a close up third.There are winners already from that race franking what looked a strong form race at the time.Both Tiger Cliff and Mubaraza look suited out to further although there is no guarantee at this extreme distance that either will emphatically stay I think they are both more likely that not to do so.I have Tiger Cliff favourite at 6.0 on my figures with Mubaraza next best at 7.50 so current quotes of 7.0 and 10.0 respectively appeal.Early markets are 30% plus overound so Betfair looks easily the best option here.

Advised Bets : Tiger Cliff      0.85 units to win at 6.50 or better-shop on Betfair
                         Mubaraza       0.65 units to win at 8.0 or better -shop on Betfair


Windsor Castle Stakes

This looks very,very difficult.Just watching here
                       


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