It's a bit disappointing today for a Wednesday in Spring.Ballarat is a Heavy 9 with rain and strong winds forecast for later although the radar is clear at the moment.Canterbury is a Good 3 and it's warm and dry there.
I can't find anything I'm keen on at Canterbury and the early races at Ballarat don't appeal but I think race 7 is interesting.
Ballarat
Race 7
Handsome Tycoon ran really well on pace in a better race than this at Cranbourne last time.He was beaten less than half a length there in fourth and the winner and the fifth have won since to frank the form.The negatives are 1) yet to race on wet ground and 2) he's a 3-y-o taking on older horses although that was the case at Cranbourne last time too.He's 2.50 and that would be rock bottom on dry ground so on a Heavy 9 I think he's far too short.Caribbea started out with Mick Kent,moved to Saab Hasan and then went north to Tony Gollan in Queensland.She's back in Victoria now with the excellent and underrated Stephen Theodore.Looking through her form I'm convinced she's at her best in wet ground.She went into my "blackbook" after her last run and if anyone can squeeze the best out of her then Theodore can.7.0 with the TAB and Sportingbet looks ok against my rated price of 5.50
Advised Bet: Caribbea 0.90 units at 6.0 or better-take the 7.0 for 60% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Possible bet in race 8 and if I'm playing I'll send via Twitter 10/15 mins before jump time
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