Sandown & Kembla Today

Sandown and a ATC meeting at Kembla to concentrate on today.


Sandown

Dead 4 posted but expect an upgrade to Good 3 with a hot day forecast and no showers currently around on the radar.

Race 3
Significant late jockey change here with C.Williams replacing N.Hall on favourite Vine.Very positive move!Only one set of prices here at the moment and Vine is listed at 2.50.If Vine can reproduce his run here two starts back he'll be very hard to beat.As is customary with horses ridden by Hall he was given far too much to do last time but did look a tad dour in the closing stages there.Gets out to 2100m here today and that should suit him nicely.I don't want to back him at 2.50 I think that's a bit skinny but I'll probably back him around the 3.00 mark if it is available on Betfair.I'm not listing this as an advised bet because I don't see a suitable price available at the moment.My figures have Vine at 2.75 here.

Race 4
Most of the cream here went with a few minutes of prices going up.It's a big problem on Wednesdays and it takes very little to rattle the markets.I managed to get some of the 11.0 Klishina and she's best priced 6.50 now.Red Fez touched 4.60 but she's best priced 4.20 now.It's these two against the field for me here.Both race off a mark of 62 here and in both cases that's too lenient.Red Fez won a Ballarat maiden in great style and the second there has franked the form winning subsequently.She looks sure to be involved here and 4.20 is ok against my rated price of 3.80.
Klishina trounced her rivals on debut and the placegetters there have both placed again in subsequent maidens.She was beaten by pilot error last time- apprentice O.Ay guilty of over confidence and delayed pressing the turbo button until too late.This filly has a great turn of foot and is most definitely Saturday grade.The analyst at Sportsbet/IAS who put up 11.0 this morning hasn't been doing his homework properly.I wish she'd drawn out a bit and see gate 1 here as a potential problem as she gets back and has a relatively inexperienced pilot (O.Ay again) but we do get 3kg's off to help a bit.When I took all that into account I still had her no higher that 4.50 here.

Race 5
They put up 4.20 about Chicarito here and it went in less than two minutes into 3.20 now.Subiaso has shortened also from 5.50 to 4.80.That makes it difficult to advise a bet here as I was looking at taking 3 against the field here- they being those two mentioned plus Grane.Value isn't there now but I think the winner is more likely to come from one of these three than not.

Race 6
A few hopes here.The two with the scope to do much better are Compass and Jamaican Warrior.Jamaican Warrior ran ok in a similar event last time and can certainly do better but has a tricky gate here-he's second pick but I prefer Compass.He has gate 1 here and hopefully he can hold the rail and box seat.He's raced on pace in Sydney but drifted back on his first run for Kane Harris (stable going gangbusters by the way) so lets hope he stays prominent today.Really wound up when he found his stride at Seymour and the horse he beat there Horatio has been going well.He's listed at 6.0 in early markets and I have him at 4.80.

Kembla

I'm dubious about the track rating here of Heavy 8 up from 9 last night.They haven't watered here so Heavy is a bit hard to fathom as it's pretty dry and a warm dry day is forecast.I reckon it'll be slow or dead as the day progresses.Anyway I don't like anything here today from the early listings so nothing at all I can help you with .

Advised Bets

Sandown    Race 4    Red Fez       1.30 units to win at 4.0 or better (take the 4.20 now)
                                  Klishina       1.10 units to win at 4.80 or better (take the 6.50 still available)

                  Race 6     Compass      1.05 units to win at 5.0 or better (take the 6.0 available now)