Three G1's at Caulfield today.The track is a Dead 4 and a hot day in prospect so a Good 3 upgrade should be a formality.In Sydney the Autumn rains have arrived and the Warwick Farm reading of a Slow 6 looks very optimistic.It's persistent rain there and it's in for the day.Work on a Heavy 8 to begin with and expect it to deteriorate from there.
The blogs having a frustrating month and it's on target for it's first monthly loss.Hopefully,something can be clawed back today.
Caulfield
Race 5
Mawingo will have first run on Mr Moet and that is a big advantage round here in race that will almost certainly be run at a sedate pace.Mr Moet is very,very progressive and his run behind All Too Hard was just as good as Mawingo's in my book.I can't see anything else winning here.No bet advised at this stage but if Mr Moet get's out to around 4.50 on Betfair I'll probably be tempted.
Race 7
Guelph is the annointed Darley top 2-y-o so from such a powerful team has to warrant massive respect.She was very good here last time and the extra trip and strongly run race are both positives for her.Miracles of Life was sensational winning here too.She's a small dainty thing unlike the amazonian Guelph but her acceleration was breathtaking and from a good gate I think she will be the quicker filly today.My figures here are 2.70 Miracles Of Life and 3.80 Guelph.I'm not taking early odds here as I think 3.0 plus Miracles and 4.0 plus Guelph will both be available at times during betting.I'm backing Miracles and I'm saving on Guelph.
Warwick Farm
I am very wary of this meeting generally with deteriorating conditions and only one race appeals here today at this stage.
Race 7
Streama is the class act here but she's first up on bad ground and has much bigger fish to fry as the Autumn progresses.I'm working around her here.Skytrain is the obvious alternative and I know he's not the most willing horse in a finish but his last two efforts have both been good.He's a very good wet track horse and he'll be swooping out wide at the end.I've taken the 4.20 about him for 60% of my stake and I'll shop around on Betfair with the rest.I rate him 3.50 here.I've also backed Hood who I think is a very live hope here.On his day he can pull out a big run and fresh is a good time to catch him-he's a knob in the wet too.He's rated 89 but he's performed better than that rating on his "on" days so if he does his best he is right in this.He may lead-I hope he does as he can take some pegging back.I have him at 6.50 here and Bet 365 have him at 10.0
Advised Bets
Caulfield Race 7 Miracles Of Life 1.80 units to win at 2.90 or better-shop for value
Guelph 0.60 units to win as a saver at 3.80 or better
Warwick Farm Race 7 Skytrain 1.40 units to win at 3.70 or better ( take 60% of the stake at 4.20 now and shop on Betfair with the remaining 40%)
Hood 0.75 units to win at 7.0 or better (take the 10.0 on offer now at Bet 365-plenty of 9.0 elsewhere)
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