Caulfield & Rosehill Today

All of you will have experienced weeks when everything seems to be going wrong all at the same time.I've had such a week.I need a couple of winners to cheer me up so here's hoping!
Caulfield is a good 3 with showers forecast.No sign of them on the radar and doubt they will amount to much if they do arrive later.Expect fast Summer ground.
Rosehill is a Heavy 10 after being deluged yesterday.Rain this morning is clearing now but it's going to be tough out there today.

Caulfield

Race 1
Spending is still 3.30 with Sportingbet after being as high as 4.0 yesterday.This looks a useful filly in the making.The barrier is a bit awkward but we have C.Williams aboard to deal with that.I think she'll be sent forward here to sit just behind the speed.1400m should bring about a lot of improvement.A mark of 68 is too lenient and I've got her a 2.60 chance here.

Race 6
Two serious hopes here in The New Boy and Infinite Energy and I'll be a tad surprised if the winner comes from elsewhere.Both ran well last time.The New Boy just failed to land the gamble after kicking clear and looking home.That was a sterling effort and he was stiff going down narrowly.Infinite Energy wasn't beaten far and got home well- the extra 200m won't hurt today.The New Boy can dictate here and I think of the two his was the better effort last time.My figures here are The New Boy 2.80, Infinite Energy 3.40.Early market have then both around 3.30 (The New Boy is 3.50 with TAB Sportsbet)


Rosehill

Race 4
Disciple is early favourite here at 2.40.That's very short for a horse 4 weeks between runs with 58kg's on his back.He's certainly an improved horse this prep but will need to carry that improvement on to score again here today.He's 2 points up in the ratings from the mark he was beaten off last time.The last time he and Fedde met Disciple gave him 0.5kg's and finished just behind him.That was on wet ground.Today he has to give Fedde 6kg's after Fedde's riders 3kg claim is taken into account.Fedde does get back and there is no guarantee of a strong tempo here but he's around 10.00 and thats simply too big.I have him a 6.50 chance.Burbero is improving and Zedlion was good again last week.

Race 7
She's Clean won nicely last time but that was a suss race in my opinion and this is far more testing.After the claim she still has to cart 58kg's through the mud, is 4 points higher in the ratings than last time and has opposition that looks a fair bit more robust than she beat a fortnight ago.2.70 is way too short.Matignon is second best around 3.40 and that's about right.The one that stands out value wise is Magnolia Lane who is best suited by wet conditions.She's been going pretty well on the dry tracks but it will be no surprise to see her find a couple of lengths in today's mud.6.00 is my rated price yet Luxbet have her at 11.0

Advised Bets

Caulfield      Race 1         Spending  1.90 units to win at 2.80 or better (take the 3.30 with Sportingbet)

                     Race 6         The New Boy   1.75 units to win at 3.0 or better (take the 3.50 with TAB)

Rosehill       Race 4          Fedde  0.75 units to win at 7.0 or better (shop on Betfair look for 11.0 +)

                     Race 7         Magnolia Lane 0.85 units to win at 6.50 or better (take the 11.0 at Luxbet)