Evening meeting at Moonee Valley and the track has already been upgraded to a Good 3.
I've held back this post waiting for all the races to be priced up but with just over an hour to go to the start of racing four of the eight races are still not priced up by any of the major bookies.
I'm looking at two races here tonight.
Race 5
I think Paaratte Pat is clearly the horse to beat here tonight.Last time around here he was given a most unsatisfactory ride and J.Mott is replaced by the good apprentice J Kissick (claims the 3kg's) this evening.He should hold the fence here and with the weights in his favour he looks very hard to beat.2.70 is the general quote which is close to my rating of 2.65 so I need a bit better to get involved here.2.90 plus will be ok and if you shop on Betfair around 25/20 minutes before post time I think you'll get that.
Race 7
Anlon looked good winning last time and he's a live hope but everything panned out really well for him last time and tonight he has sterner opposition and a tough gate to deal with.Xavi makes plenty of appeal at first glance.This race is easier than the one he ran second in when resuming.I'm just concerned about him being 3 weeks between runs and stepping up over 300m in trip.He's been a bit easy in early markets out from 3.50 to 3.80.I've got him rated 3.25 here but that's assuming he's fit and ready to go.I won't put this one up as an advised bet but I'll be backing him if the market doesn't argue emphatically against him but that early drift has me very wary
Advised Bets
Moonee Valley Race 5 Paaratte Pat 1.85 units to win at 2.90 plus (monitor Betfair and try to shop at 2.90 plus)
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