Cup day down at Mornington and a very competitive 10 race programme there.Track is rated a Dead 4 but with no rain around and a forecast in the high 20's expect good fast Summer ground.Canterbury is listed as a Slow 7 and there is a bit of coastal drizzle around Sydney this morning but it doesn't amount to much.Canterbury is a very quick drying track so it will be no surprise to see a quick upgrade-if there is no rain at all it'll probably be in the Dead range by mid-afternoon.
The Mornington programme is extremely tough and I've found this to be a very unprofitable day over the years.All the races bar the Inglis 2-y-o race which looks a match between Twilight Royale and Resistant are very hard and I'll be doing more laying than backing there today.Hopefully I'll do better than I did yesterday where I layed 4 horses 3 of which were winners.Only one bet at Mornington and it's in the cup
Mornington
Race 8
Plenty of sound hopes in the Mornington Cup this year.The two big improvers are Durnford (up a massive 27 points for winning last time) who will relish the extra distance and Award Season who demolished a midweek field at Canterbury last time and who will also be much better suited out to this longer trip.Both can win but do have to improve a lot again to do so and whilst they can they currently account for almost 40% of the market and I think that is too much.At 13/14.0 Travolta appeals as good value.He's a steady improver,can get a good run from a nice gate and is a thorough stayer at this trip.I have him at 9.0 in a tough race so I'm happy to have a small bet at the current quote.
Canterbury is thin on races that appeal but I am keen on one here.Plus a look at race an earlier race.
Race 4
Three hopes here.On a line through Zedlion there isn't much between So Symbolic and Burberro.Both are lightly races improvers,are proven at the trip,can handle cut in the ground and swap senior riders for claimers today.Can't really split them.Disciple was a month between runs last time and was ultra weak in betting and ran poorly.If and it is an if, he's fit enough to produce his best he rates just about as sound a chance as the other two mentioned.If he was solid in betting I could possibly be interested in him at around 4.50
Race 5
Ninth Legion has contested group races in all of his last 5 starts (2 of them in G 1's).Here he is resuming in a midweek BM75 with a claimer on board.If you thought initial quotes around 4.0 looked inviting then think again because he's on the slide.Maybe he'll rally in later betting but early signals suggest he's not as good now as he was then.I like Zin Zan Eddie here.He's a lightly raced 3-y-o coming of a solid win in Saturday grade last time.He can position handy here as most of these settle back.His debut run was on slow and he was a good third that day so any cut in the track is unlikely to be a negative.Best priced 3.90 against my rating of 3.40
Advised Bets
Mornington Race 8 Travolta 0.55 units to win at 10.00 or better ( 14.0 is available now)
Canterbury Race 5 Zin Zan Eddie 1.45 units to win at 3.50 or better (take the 3.90 now)
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