The star performers are back now and the Queen of Australian racing returns today in the G1 Lightning Stakes now renamed The Black Caviar Lightning Stakes in her honour.Great stuff but not much good for betting purposes.
Flemington is a Dead 4 but it's hot so will upgrade.There is a chance of thundery showers during the afternoon but I'm expecting that unless there is a deluge it'll stay Good.
Rosehill is a Dead 5 and there are showers around Sydney today.So far they have mostly been confined to the city and the coastal areas but if they move inland then a downgrade is not out of the question.I'm working on a Dead track but mindful of the possibility of rain.
Flemington
Australian racing seems to be either "Feast or Famine".We've been dealing with some dreadful quality racing over the Summer and now a couple of weeks later were right in the thick of the Autumn carnival.The blog is very much on the side of one Flemington based stable today.
Race 5
What to make of Spending's capitulation last time?Surely it was too bad to be true.1400m should be no problem for her bred as she is.There was some very aggressive laying of her on Betfair close to off time last time and I suspect she wasn't fully wound up.The main targets for the O'Brien yard are generally the races here at Flemington and this is a Group 3 and a huge value booster for a filly bred as she is.C Williams has stuck solid and I too am giving her another chance.I've ignored the last run and have her rated a 3.50 chance
Race 8
The cream has gone from the price of Decircles now with 2.90 with best quote around.He was terrific resuming and looked a lost cause 500m out but really flew home and would have won in another 50m or so.He's very well in here and very hard to beat.I have him at 2.70 here so 2.90 still is some value and I'm going to put him forward as a bet at that price.
Race 9
The New Boy keeps running second so he's frustrating but nevertheless he's still the most likely winner here.He'll lead again and should get left alone in front.Kate Mallyon claims 2kg's and she has won on him before.4.20 on offer against my rated price of 3.60
Rosehill
Race 1
Fast Clip is going to be hard to beat here with not a lot of pressure against him up front.He's got a job on his hands giving 7kg's to Carry me Bluey though after S. Clipperton's claim is taken into account.Carry Me Bluey is a "get back run on" type and that's not an ideal in a race likely to be steadily run.The job for Clipperton here is to keep him covered up without letting him get too far back.I don't like backing get back types but he's massive overs here.7.0 on offer and I have him 4.50 absolute max here.His Brisbane form is very good for a race like this and he ran very well last time on his first Sydney start.The drop back to 1800m is a plus.Has to be backed at those odds
Race 7
Riva De Lago is a horse that has driven me nuts over the last couple of years.He's a nuisance but one I cannot ignore today on offer at around 7.0 in a race that looks very winnable for him.It's probably more me finding holes in the opposition than any great confidence in Riva but he did win in great style last time.7.0 is too big I've got him 5.0.Never again if he get's beat today
Advised Bets
Flemington Race 5 Spending 1.40 units to win at 3.75 or better (shop around 4.65 on offer and you may do better on Betfair)
Race 8 Decircles 1.85 units to win at 2.90 or better (2.90 on offer now and should be taken)
Race 9 The New Boy 1.40 units to win at 3.80 or better (take the 4.20 on offer now)
Rosehill Race 1 Carry Me Bluey 1.10 units to win at 5.0 or better (take the 7.0 on offer now)
Race 7 Riva De Lago 1 unit to win at 5.50 or better (take the 7.0 on offer now)
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