Terrible track bias over the last couple of days.Sandown and Wyong on Wednesday were very leader biased whilst at Ballarat yesterday nothing could make any ground out wide at all.Taking early odds can be an expensive exercise once bias comes into play and the form book counts for very little.
Moonee Valley tonight is a Good 3 and there is the possibility of showers but the radar looks pretty clear.Rail is in the true so hopefully the track plays fair.Canterbury is a Good 3 and whilst there is plenty of rain just north of Sydney it hasn't affected things yet.Canterbury hold moisture better than any other track I know so it will take a lot to affect the reading.
Moonee Valley
Race 5
Vatican is favourite at 2.80 but I think that's far too short.I have both Galbraith and Walzes shorter than him.Waltzes goes really well here and with speed on her he can get home over the top of them. 5.0 with Luxbet is very appealing against my rating of 3.80.
Canterbury
Race 5
Shamus is a horse still with a bit more to offer.He looked good winning on his first run for the Pride stable last month.He's trialled really well since.He'll be handy to the pace and this race looks ideal for him.A few here that you cannot dismiss but I think Shamus is a bit better than his mark of 75 and with the right run here 3.50 with Luxbet is big enough to tempt me.I have him rated 2.90.
Advised Bets
Moonee Valley Race 5 Waltzes 1.30 units to win at 4.0 or better (take the 5.0 with Luxbet)
Canterbury Race 5 Shamus 1.75 units to win at 3.10 or better (take the 3.50 with Luxbet)
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