After the Summer drought G1 racing returns today with the running of the C.F. Orr Stakes at Caulfield.Hot weather for both Caulfield and Warwick Farm today so expect the Caulfield track to be upgraded from a Dead 4 to a Good 3.Just be aware that thundery showers are a possibilty at Warwick Farm this afternoon.It would have to sluice down to alter the Good 3 rating there but as Autumn approaches torrential rain is always a real possibilty in Sydney.
Caulfield
Race 2
Very keen on Sumakaray here.She was terrific winning over Christmas at Moonee Valley when wide throughout.Second there Avoid Lightning franked the form in Listed grade last week.She won't be wide today and can be right on pace from gate 2.She's back against her own age group here and although she is favourite she still is great value at 2.90.I have her a 2.35 chance here.
Warwick Farm
Race 3
Two relatively unexposed horses here against a field of horses who have generally peaked perfomance wise namely, Laser Flash and Pendolin.Laser Flash doesn't have much turn of foot and the stretch out to 2200mshould suit him providing he's fit enough second up.There has been some money for him so I'll take his fitness on trust here.He's a lightly raced 3-y-o off bottom weight here and surely there is better to come from him.Gets a nice run just behind the speed here from gate 4.Best price is 5.50 against my rating of 4.50.
Pendolin worked hard outside the speed the whole way last time.In the circumstances it was a very good effort to stick on doggedly for fourth.She can lead or sit handy from gate 2 here.She is bred to be suited by the extra 300m today and is a mare progressing nicely-this is only here eighth start so she should have more to offer.10.0 on offer with Bet 365 and 9.50 at the TAB.I've got her at 6.0 here
Race 6
I thought the favourite here Happy Galaxy was chronic unders at 3.20 even though there is a chance he'll get a dolly lead.The ex NZ Warhorse now renamed Tougher Than Ever has a live hope on official figures-he's been backed so maybe he'll be fit enough to do himself justice here today.Skytrain was well ridden last time and he's a hope but he is a bit dodgy and you are brave if you back him.Albert The Fat is easily the best horse but he'll surely need the run and is being aimed at longer races.Centennial Park hasn't won since "Adam was a lad" but he goes very well fresh and loves fast ground.He doesn't really fit the profile of horses I like to back but I'm strong about my figures being accurate in this event and I have him at 5.50 and he is available at 7.0 so I'm on at 7.0 as I think the favourite will drift here.
Advised Bets
Caulfield Race 2 Sumakaray 2.10 units to win at 2.50 or better (take the 2.90 now)
Warwick Farm Race 3 Laser Flash 1.10 units to win at 4.80 or better (take the 5.50 now)
Pendolin 0.85 units to win at 6.50 or better (take the 9.50 + now)
Race 6 Centennial Park 0.90 units to win at 6.0 or better (take the 7.0 now)
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