Goodwood Day Three and dry overnight and no rain around so expect good fast racing ground.
Only two bets so far and it's hard to find value in horses I want to back.
Race 1
Good 3-y-old handicap.
I like Roseburg and he looks better than a handicapper to me. His form is on good ground or softer though and he has an action that suggest juice in the ground will serve him best. I don't want to oppose him as I have no hard evidence that he won't handle fast ground but it's enough of a niggle to stop me backing him here. The other obvious two here Astronereus and Rainbow Rock are also slight doubts on fast ground.Otherwise it's very open so I have to pass here.
Race 2
2-y-old G2 over Six Furlongs
Ivawood was dominant at the July meeting and has no more to do here and should follow up and is long odds on to do so. He looks like he's ready for 7 furlongs now and this is a quick 6 so that is a slight negative.Pass
Race 3
Goodwood Cup G2 Two Miles
This is not an easy one to solve although Estimate's Gold Cup second entitles her to head the market but at 3.0 she's a bit short. Brown Panther is better suited this trip than in the Gold Cup but fast ground is not really ideal for him and he was a bit below his best in France last time.Cavalryman is racing well this year and probable gets to dominate so you have to rate him. Angel Gabriel deserves a crack at this grade and he's a fast improving stayer against some who been around for a long time. The very talented but exasperating Brass Ring lurks around 20.0 and might surprise many but not me.
Still thinking about this race-may do something here
Race 4
Distaff G3 over One Mile and Six Furlongs
Missunited comes here off a career best effort in the Gold Cup.This week last year she was winning the Galway Hurdle so I assume she could have chosen that option again rather than this. She's mighty tough and versatile and has a chance.She did benefit from a very good enterprising ride from J.Crowley at Ascot and the bare figures probably flatter her a bit. Doubt she'll dominate here either as the German mare Nymphea usually leads. Talent has the best overall form but she's hard to back as she is inconsistent. Waila is a possible but I couldn't back her. Stella Bellissima was a very taking winner of her maiden.Maiden to G2 is a huge leap but Gosden trains and he's a master placer. She from a very smart staying family and I doubt she'll be far away. Not playing here
Race 6
7 Furlong Handicap for 3-y-olds
Open race but there is one here that I've been waiting for in Secret Hint .There are three negatives that might force her price out a bit. The first is the gate -she's drawn wide and will need luck,secondly she's 4lb out of the handicap on official figures (but not mine) and thirdly she's not a very big filly and may be perceived to lack scope. She's got a mark of 80 here and that's very lenient-I'm hoping she drifts a bit. Haven't done anything here yet
Race 7
9 Furlong Apprentice Handicap.
Expect they'll run along here.It's very open but I do like Balmoral Castle and he's thriving at the moment.He has to improve a bit more to win this but a fast run race around this trip is just what he wants and the boy who's riding him gets on well with him.He's around 6.0 on Betfair now and that's about right-not committed at the moment
Sorry no early bets but I see no point in committing early unless you see a definite advantage in doing so.
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