Friday 4 July 2014

Caulfield & Rosehill Today - July Newsletter #2

Caulfield posts a Slow 6 with patchy showers around and the forecast is for more rain into the day. 3 to 10mm is the target range so if it comes it will definitely alter things.Monitor closely.
Rosehill is a Good 3 and dry so expect decent fast ground.

Caulfield

I'm not committing early to anything here early with so much weather uncertainty.

Race 3
Word Of Mouth and Leventi dominated a similar event at Flemington three weeks ago and they definitely stand out as the two most likely here - pretty sure I'll be doing something here but not committed yet- will advise via Twitter

Race 4
This is a good 3-y-o race and there are plenty of hopes. The form around Amovatio is solid and the claim is a big positive here. Despite having strong respect for him I do think he's a bit too short around 3.20 but that may not stop him being very popular. I have no idea what happened to Allez Eagle at Flemington last week but he rolled around like a "drunken sailor" over the last furlong.Nothing in the stewards report that explains it. Maybe he wants wet ground.Jessy Belle may have been a tad underdone last time (very easy to back late on Betfair).Her form around Griante gives her a live hope here.Best Suggestion is better than his current mark of 66 and he draws for a cosy on pace run here.
So Does He will probably improve for getting out to this trip.He is overs at 14.0 with Bet 365
May do something here-will advise via Twitter

Race 6
Lord Of The Sky heads the market around 2.80 now-it's impossible to lay on Betfair and it will blow.
It's unknown on seriously wet ground is up 5.5kg's from last time and had won only at 1000m-failed only attempt at 1100m. African Pulse comes back gelded and is the obvious alternative but your taking him on trust a bit. It's doesn't end there at all and this is decidedly tricky.



Rosehill

Race 3
With Zaba Zaba Doo resuming and very easy in betting I'm very strong on the chances of Encostanati. His form is progressive and rock solid and he draws for a nice run on the pace here. Foreign prince is the danger but he's resuming and may need this and another 200m.

Advised Bet: Encostanati 1.80 units at 2.90 or better-take the 3.40 now


Race 5
I thought Sir John Hawkwood was value for much more last time.He was held up the length of the straight and would have been much closer with a clear run.This trip suits now and he's well in here on his UK form. There are a few hopes here but I think he should be favourite and is nice overs with the TAB fixed odds

Advised Bet: Sir John Hawkwood 1.10 units at 4.80 or better-take the 6.0 with the TAB fixed odds

Race 7
Zaratone is in good form and returns to Rosehill over 1100m on fast ground. These are the perfect conditions for him and whilst he is not getting any younger he's held his form really well over the years.Last two efforts at Randwick have been good but he goes better here. Should be favourite marginally over Cradle me but markets have them the other way around.

Advised Bet: Zaratone 1.55 units at 3.30 or better-take the 3.80 on offer now for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance

Any further bets (very likely) and updates sent via Twitter

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