Sandown is on again after being given the flick last week. It's a Slow 7 but it's a dry mild day so maybe it will upgrade. With all the problems they have had with the new surface it stands to reason that punters will be very cautious and will want to see how things pan out in early races.
Warwick Farm is a Good3 and good weather in Sydney so it should be decent fast ground there.
Sandown
Race 2
I thought there were four serious chances and early betting concurs. Excited Spirit (racing well winning last 2-harder now and unproven 2400m),Hot Power (good second last two and re-opposes both winners here on better terms,proven at 2400m, Diamond Jim (well ridden to beat Hot Power here then won Hurdle here subsequently), Knead The Dough (ex Sydney mare now with M. Kent,ran well first Victorian run in slightly higher grade,extra trip probably helps).
Excellent Spirit at 3.40 looks a bit skinny to me as I don't think there is very much between these four and I have them all in the 4.0/5.0 range
Race 5
This is an OK race with some that will prove to be quite handy. Both O'Malley and Sunday Escape have solid form that has been sudsequently franked. O'Malley is unproven on ground wetter than Dead5 and has had a 6 week freshen up. Sunday Escape is proven here in wet ground and the one that beat him is useful. Awkward gate though.
Amber Warning was very dominant winning a Sale maiden in wet ground and the third has won since.
Caprese, Kings Spirit,This Is The Show, Tannaset and Tatler Belle are other possibilities.
Race 6
By now we should no if the fence is any good or not and if the ground has quickened up any.
Both those queries stopped me backing Hard Romp early as he draws gate 1 and although he won in the wet last time I think dryer ground will help him and hinder Our Nikwazi. Liberty Rock is a danger but he will probably need further and be fitter for the run. No real early support for Draw Forward who would be a hope if returning to her best. Hotham Heights and Cavallo Nero are hopes but both struggle to win. May back Hard Romp if conditions appear favourable.
Race 8
Most Husbands is a bit short in early betting around 3.20 unless it's a dead set swoopers track and even then there is precious little guaranteed speed in this.There was no speed when he ran second last time though.That was a very good effort although he died on his run the last 80m there so dropping back in trip will help. He's turned his form around big time of late. Not sure here yet.
Warwick Farm
Race 6
Quite a few live hopes here and it should prove a solid marker for the future.
Bookies Favourite Specific Choice is at the head of betting and no doubt some will want to give him another go.Not me though.
Paederos has been good the last three runs and drops back 150m here after been off for 6 weeks. Has a very handy 3kg claimer and will either lead or be handy. Alcaraz was highly tried resuming and was well beaten. Was promising last prep and is hard to evaluate confidently at the moment. Perfect Weapon, Bermuda Blu and Cape Clear are all sound hopes in an open race. Eklands has been improving rapidly around the country tracks and whilst this is harder 16.0 does look generous enough (it's been much bigger but probably only for buttons) for a improver who draws well and gets a good run
Advised Bet: Eklands 0.40 units at 13.0 or better -is 16.0 with Ladbrokes. May be more here later
Race 7
The form around Topmast's maiden win and previous second has a solid look to it and he probably has more to offer but at better odds I prefer the Victorian raider Calibrate. He ran well at Sandown in the wet and suspect his best will be on dryer.Draws a good gate for a nice trail here and at 16.0 with Bet 365 is huge overs-I have him at 6.50!
Advised Bet: Calibrate 0.75 units at 7.0 or better-take the 16.0 with Bet 365 if you can get it,13.0 in other places
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