Flemington is a Dead 5 and it's generally dry so perhaps it might just get to a Dead 4.
Rosehill is a Good 3 and morning showers in Sydney and strong winds have mostly been around coastal areas.I doubt it gets any rain but the wind may be a factor so monitor conditions.
Flemington
Race 4
This should prove to be a strong form race with some likable progressive horses engaged.
Stamina resumes after a year off. I expect he'll be better for the run over a 1000m today. Handsome Tycoon's Sydney win is solid form and he followed that up with a good second over 1100m here last time.He's got to be around the money here again today you would think. O'Malley was good winning an easier race at midweek level last time-he and the second came away there so he's a live hope here.
Trevinder was good second in a solid BM70 last time but this is probably a bit tougher. Seven Falls is unexposed and won his maiden easily before failing when favourite at Moonee Valley. Cosmic Lights' debut in very wet ground at Mornington was very eyecatching. Different grade and ground today but the vibes were strong and don't think this one will be far away.
Advised Bets: Handsome Tycoon 1.15 units at 4.50 or better-5.0 available now
Cosmic Lights 0.85 units at 6.20 or better-7.0 available now
Race 5
Fulgar has an obvious hope but he doesn't look much in love with the game these days so I'm to find something to oppose him with.Backbone has a sound chance if he's fit enough but he might just need another run to top him off. Shenzou Steeds is a hope but he struggles to win these days.Post D'France and Use The lot are running below their best at the moment. Eclair Samba is rated 74 and the minimum here is around 84.Normally that would put off straight away but the 74 rating looks way,way too low on a line of form from earlier in the year.This horse is not badly in here at all and he's still unexposed.4.60 is on offer and at that price there is enough of a margin for me to want to play.
Advised Bet: Eclair Samba 1.25 units at 4.20 or better -has been 5.0 into 4.60 this morning and doubt it gets any bigger.
Rosehill
Race 3
I put up Zaratone on the blog a couple of weeks ago only to find out after the money was down that it had had a foot abcess. It blew like a gale in the betting and ran like a horse that had stood in it's box for a couple of weeks which it probably had.It was 5.0 that day early and meets the same principal rivals but a bit better off weight wise.This morning it's 10.0 into 9.0 and at that price I definitely want to go in again.1100m around Rosehill brings out the best in him. Bit cautious after what happened last time but have to play at those odds.
Advised Bet : Zaratone 0.85 units at 6.0 or better-take the 9.0 on offer
Race 8
I'm sure there is more to come from Paederos and he's a big enough price to get me interested again today after he did me a favour last time. He can get a nice sit behind Moral Victory who will lead I'm sure and I think that suits him better than leading himself. I would have been interested in Evangelist who makes his Australian debut but he's a big blower out to 21.0 so happy to watch him today.
Advised Bet: Paederos 1.25 units at 4.20 or better-is 4.80 at the moment from 5.0
There will almost certainly be more today as markets develop and open up and Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
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