Royal Ascot the most anticipated fixture in the UK flat racing calendar rolls around again and whilst other premier meetings have struggled to hold their place in the pecking order this one goes from strength to strength. It's the highlight of my racing year and provided the ground is decent it offers punters a strong opportunity to profit.
The fickle English weather looks likely to come good this year with a dry forecast until late in the week at least so whilst as always it's a very strong competitive five days the better horses should get their chance to shine.
Obviously not every race appeals as a betting medium but there definitely will be opportunities during the five days.
The ground is described as Good on the Round course and Good to Soft,,Good in places on the Straight course.With a dry night and morning I'm pretty sure the meeting will start as a general Good all over and firming up all the time
Tuesday
Queen Anne Stakes G1 One Mile Straight Course
Toronado sets the standard and has clearly the best figures. He was an excellent second at this meeting last year going down narrowly to Dawn Approach. After that effort he narrowly reversed the form with Dawn Approach in the Sussex Stakes. Stepped up to 10 furlongs at York and he ran poorly and was subsequently found to be coughing. He's been off since August so you have to take his well being and fitness on trust. At around Even money it's not a bet I'd be falling over to have.
Verrazano is a Coolmore acquisition.At one point prior to last year's Kentucky Derby he looked the US colt most likely to succeed. His UK debut was very promising and it'll be surprising if he doesn't run well here. Has to improve a fair bit to win though but you have to have maximum respect for the team behind him.
Soft Falling Rain looked a colt of immense promise in Dubai last year. He needed his first UK run and then blew away some useful horses in the Joel Stakes at Newmarket. He looked a sure fire G1 winner in the making that day. The wet ground was all against him at Ascot on Champions Day and that effort is best forgiven. He was a well beaten second behind Variety Club in Dubai on World Cup night but that form looks pretty good after the winners demolition job in Hong Kong.I suspect there is still a bit more to come from him.
Advised Bet: Soft Falling Rain EW at around 7.5/8.0.Shop around some bookies are paying 1/4 the odds the place.
Coventry Stakes G2 6 Furlongs Straight
Some very good horses have one this 2-y-o event and it's generally the strongest 2-y-o form to come out of the Royal meeting. There are form lines from all over and it's a difficult race to get an accurate handle on.
Kool Kompany represents the Hannon team and he probably has the best form coming into this. He had War Envoy back in third when winning in Ireland last time. War Envoy was odds on that day and seemed to lose his action a bit at the furlong.The fact that O'Brien wants to run here suggest he thinks his horse is a bit better than that latest run. The statistics are strong for any O'Brien runner in this race as he's won it 7 times in 20 years. The Wow Signal, Adaay, and Cappella Sansevero are others with realistic hopes.That said there are another handful that wouldn't totally surprise.
King's Stand Stakes G1 5 Furlongs Straight
I'm very keen on the 3-y-o Hot Streak here. He's already just about got the figures to win this and is improving all the time. His effort winning over course and distance as a 2-y-o was outstanding and backed up by a very good timefigure. He looked very good winning at Haydock after a mishap leaving the stalls and he took two lengths out of a decent field in a matter of strides.He can sit just behind the leaders here and pounce at the furlong and hopefully sprint past them.
Shea Shea has been a very consistent sprinter at the highest level and should have won more G1's than he has. He was a tad unlucky here last year being left exposed on the far side and just run down late by the admirably tough Sole Power. Twice he's been the victim of atrocious rides from Soumillon once in the July cup and last time on World Cup night in Dubai-that last effort was an absolute shocker when he was given no hope settling way too far back. Sole Power can never be ruled out so consistent and gutsy as he is.Both he and Shea Shea are well suited by the drying conditions.
I think it'll be one of these three here but I want to be with the improving Hot Streak.Not many 3-y-o's contest this but there have been some very good winners amongst the ones that have.
Advised Bet: Hot Streak around 5.0 looks overs to me.My figures have him at 3.60.
Both Shea Shea and Sole Power are viable EW alternatives if you want to play at bigger odds but I'm with Hot Streak.
St James Palace Stakes G1 One Mile Round Course
Great race and probably the best at the meeting. 7 runners but only four realistic hopes.
Kingman is around Even money to get his revenge on his Newmarket conqueror Night Of Thunder.
The Guineas at Newmarket was run on Good to Firm and there was some concern beforehand that Kingman would be better with easier ground.There wasn't much in it at the line but Night Of Thunder would have been a bit further ahead had he not hung so badly in the last 100m. On that evidence and on ground that's drying out all the time you'd think there wouldn't be too much between them again here. However, Kingman has since romped away with the Irish Guineas on a very wet track.
Toormore was second favourite at Newmarket but ran below his best. He'll probably be the leader here in what will be a tactical affair and as the highest rated 2-y-o of last season is no forlorn hope especially if he get's left alone in front.
War Command does have to find a bit to win.He's got 5 lengths to make up on Guineas form but the O'Brien horses weren't quite firing early in the season after a bout of coughing in the stable.Don't be surprised if he's much closer today.
I think Kingman is a bit too short at Evens,Night Of Thunder appeals a bit more value wise if he get's out to around 4.0 which I think he will. Toormore at around 9.0 is very dangerous if left alone in front.
I'm not committed to anything in this race yet.
Ascot Stakes Handicap Two and a half miles
This is a very tough race to unravel.It makes no appeal to me as a betting race and I can't suggest anything at all here.
One point to note though is how well horses do in this race who have been jumping. The two from that sphere with the best credential are Lieutenant Miller and the O'Brien trained Plinth.
If you had to have a bet here then a least your probably sure of a good run from Lieutenant Millar who is a very consistent performer and who ran third in this race last year.His subsequent two efforts last year were places in top notch handicaps like this one.He's fully exposed but should be around the money again.I couldn't back him however as there will almost certainly be one or two that get home before him.
Windsor Castle Stakes Listed 5 Furlongs Straight
2-y-o race with form lines coming from all over the place.
Merdon Castle just about has the best figures to date.He gave Kool Kompany (runs earlier in the Coventry) 3 pounds when going down narrowly to him at Windsor. Plenty of others to consider here though and not a race I'm keen to be involved in.This race can through up some decent priced winners-the average SP since 2001 has been 19.0 plus.
Hootenanny is very interesting over from the US.His trainer Wesley Ward has won 2-y-o races here before and anything he runs commands respect.They are usually speedballs and this one looks right in the mould. Got turned over in the wet last time but a strong winner on dry on debut. He's got the plum draw for a speed horse here 25 of 25 hard up against the stands rail. Sure to give a sight it's just a matter of if he can last home.
Doubt I'll be betting here.
I'll update the blog around an hour before racing begins
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