Flemington & Rosehill Today

Flemington is a Dead 4 but with showers around keep monitoring.
Rosehill is a Good 3 and has strong winds forecast so look out for any bias they may cause.


Flemington

Race 2
Allez Eagle's effort last time at the Valley was huge. That was 1200m and all his wins are at 1200m over in N.Z.. The drop back to 1100m is a slight concern but overall I want to be with him today.

Advised Bet: Allez Eagle 1.35 units at 3.85 or better-has been 4.40 into 4.20 now

Race 3
Dig a Pony looked good last time but the pace was really on there and that may have flattered her a bit. Track will be drier today too. At around 3.50 i think she's a bit too short. The obvious alternative is Refulgent who has been luckless in both his last two runs.I have a slight query with him at 1610m.
Second Bullet will be much fitter today and is a live hope.Good Music is racing well. French Husstler isn't entirely hopeless and it's a big jump from maiden grade to open company for Kareeming but he will be greatly improved by the step up in trip. Not committed here at the moment

Race 5
Charmed Harmony was fantastic at Sandown last time.He went off in front and didn't dawdle at all.Just when you thought he was about to come back to the rest of the field he kicked further away.
If he can reproduce that effort again then he'll be winning but it was so much better that anything he's shown before so just a bit wary he can do it again. The very obvious alternative is Aeratus whose having a very good prep.The drop back to 1600m is more a positive than a negative I think.
May do something here but not committed at this stage.

Race 6
If Akavoroun wants to contest the final of this series then he'll probably need to win today to get his rating up so he can make the field. I'm sure Henwood has the final as his target so maybe he will still need this to put him spot on. Thunderbird One is a possibility as are the three at the top all trained by Weir. Ringo is not that easy to weigh up but I'm not dismissing. Tricky

Race 7
I think there are four serious hopes here. The Thief who looked very good winning here last time when seeming to have a lot to do at the weights-was heavily backed nevertheless. Vain queen who travelled really well in the run before running out a strong winner last time and is two from two down the straight here.Shangai Warrior has to find a bit to challenge The Thief but he's a bit better at the weights today and will probably be fitter. Al Aneed been a bit difficult overall but first up over a sprint trip might be the best time to catch him. There has been no interest in him at this stage-I thought he would be shorter than he is.
May do something here-not committed yet

Race 8
Nautical has the best form,a good gate and a good 2kg claimer aboard. She's no moral but she's clearly the one to beat and 4.40 is big enough to tempt me.

Advised Bet: Nautical 1.25 units at 4.0 or better -4.40 is available now-doubt it gets much bigger


Rosehill is complex and Waller has multiple runners in many races which only complicates further.
No strong opinions about anything there but possibilities if markets open up a bit more.

Any further Bets/Lays/Updates sent via Twitter