The track will have 4mm of water applied overnight but with dry conditions prevailing expect the third day to begin on Good to Firm going. The forecast is for more dry weather but there is a possibility of an odd shower mid afternoon.
Norfolk Stakes G2 5 Furlongs Straight
The O'Brien trained The Great War has started 1.3 and 1.11 when running out a facile winner of both his starts to date.He's around Evens to win again here. I don't think the opposition has been great but he's untested to date. Both Mukhmal and Baitha Alga have looked decent colts so this is not a one horse affair. I won't be piling into the Evens but I'm not sure I want to oppose either. Some UK bookies are going 1/4 the odds a place so an EW play on either of the two obvious alternatives may appeal to some of you.I'm passing here at this stage.
Tercentenary Stakes G3 One Mile 2 Furlongs Round Course
This is quite a tight contest on the figures that these have achieved so far. The one that looks sure to have more to offer is Cannock Chase but the market is alive to him already and at around 3.75 is about the same as my figures which are factoring in a length or so improvement on what he has achieved so far. He may well start shorter. Barley Mow, Mutakayyef, Cloundscape, Obliterator, Somewhat and Postponed all have legitimate hopes. Will probably pass here.
Ribblesdale Stakes G2 One Mile 4 Furlongs Round Course
Inchila ran a mighty race in the Oaks at Epsom meeting traffic more than once down the straight. A clear run would have seen her running second to the impressive Taghrooda and form wise she is a stand out here. She draws out and is a get back type so the lack of obvious pace is a serious concern but she's on offer at 4.50 generally and 5.0 in some places and that's definite overs.The French filly Vazira is very promising and the O'Brien trained Bracelet should improve a good deal over this trip.
I'll stick with the proven classic form and hope she's close enough to them to mount a challenge in the last furlong.
Advised Bet: Inchila 1.35 units at 4.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Gold Cup G1 Two Miles 4 Furlongs
Leading Light heads the market and as a runaway winner of the Queens Vase here last year before going on to take out the St Leger he's clearly the horse to beat. At a best priced 2.25 he's plenty short enough though especially considering he draws the outside gate.
This is a stronger race than last year when Estimate won but she was very progressive going into that race and despite not having had a run this year it's unlikely she will lack in fitness with her trainer having only this race in mind for her.
Tac de Boistron would be a clear top pick were it not for the fast ground. He's been a steady improver and his latest effort at York on a genuinely Good surface suggests he doesn't have to have a very wet track to show his best.He's a very big price now because of the ground and that may be a bit of an overreaction.
Brown Panther is unproven at the trip but he's a live chance if he does stay. He's good in the wet but effective on dry too.
I'm still undecided what I'm doing here and want to give this race a bit more thought.I'm pretty sure the winner comes from one of these four though.
Britannia Handicap One Mile Straight
This has been a very good race for me over the years but disappointingly I can't find anything this year that I want to back. It looks incredibly open and complex. Looks like everything here will start in double figures and at this stage it looks a race to avoid.
King George V Stakes (Handicap) One Mile 4 Furlongs
I've been waiting for Windshear to step up to a mile and a half which he does here. I groaned when I saw he'd drawn really wide but that is countered to some extent by the likelihood of a solid pace. He'll have to go back but the chance to run on should be there.There are a few you can give hopes to here but I'll trust R. Hughes to get the steering and timing right with Windshear. Wrangler is a live hope if he handles fast ground
Advised Bet: Windshear 0.75 units at 7.0 or better. plenty of 9.0 and some 10.0 on offer-shop around but don't leave it too late as I doubt those odds will be available close to off time.
There will be an update around 7pm Australian EST
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