The weather is playing havoc this month for me.Firstly if anyone took the early Twitter advice to back Rain Affair at 2.80 (effectively 2.25 after scratchings) based on the radar and BOM forecast at 3am this morning I strongly suggest you trade out of the position even if you have to take a modest loss.Somehow Rosehill has missed the rain and all around it there have been falls of 10/15mm but it has stayed dry.With a dry track I simply do not want to back Rain Affair and expect him to get out to around 2.60 plus this afternoon.He may win but I'm out.
Rosehill is amazingly still a Good 3 and it's dry on the radar now.Moonee Valley is a Dead 4 but it's drying out and an upgrade is likely although there is a possibility of showers late in the day.
Moonee Valley
Race 3
Motivado will eat these if returning to his UK form here today.8.50 is way to big for a horse of his quality.He's a genuine stayer but he showed enough speed in England to win decent races around 2000m so he's not just plugger.
Advised Bet: Motivado 1 unit at 5.50 or better-take the 8.50 on offer now for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Race 8
Drying ground and a wide gate are likely to conspire against early favourite Elite Elle.The percentage call here is It Is Written who loves the valley and was a real improver last prep.He resumed with a very taking fourth at G3 level and he should be a Listed grade horse this prep.
Advised Bet
It Is Written : 0.85 units at 6.0 or better-take the 8.50 on offer now for 70% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
There are more possibilities but generally it looks a trappy day.If there is anything else I'll send it via Twitter
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