Sandown posts a dead 5 but note the jumps track there is a Slow 7. If the Dead 5 early is a sound reading there is a strong chance of an upgrade to a Dead 4. It's just a question of how much faith you can have in the initial reading.Monitor early races. Maybe some rain there very late afternoon.
Canterbury is a Good 3 and a dry fine day there so decent fast ground.
Sandown
Race 5
Gagnanm Style was really dominant in the wet at Bendigo but this is an altogether different proposition.I think he's promising and he maybe able to step straight up to this grade but he's only second choice here behind Orujo. My main concern with Orujo is that track dries out a bit-the more it dries the more I'll warm to him. His form lines are outstanding for this and mark of 67 looks very lenient when you consider that he gave 2kg's to London Lolly and went down by 1.25 lengths. That horse then beat Go Indy Go in a G3 at Morphettville.Behind London Lolly and Orujo was Bring Me The Maid who beat Peggy Jean next time in a G2 at Rosehill.
Advised Bet: Orujo 1.50 units at 3.40 or better-have 40% of the stake at the current 4.20 and monitor track conditions (see above) and betting before committing the balance.Will up date strategy on Twitter
Maybe a bet in other races particularly R 8 but markets will have to move a fair bit from where they are now ( not at all unlikely)
Canterbury
Race 6
This is strong midweek fillies and mares event and it should prove a solid form reference. Three runners particularly look well ahead of their current marks. Echo Gal the only filly-she's had 4 starts- her debut win was emphatic at 1.65-twice she's had cardiac issues-and the other run was when posted wide in the Magic Millions. She's a Saturday grade filly at least but the heart issues are a worry-trial was good. Windrunner has been flogging inferior types and gets in here off a mark of 65.Again a Saturday surely and probably should be nearer 75 than 65. Fiftyshadesofgrey is improving fast-she's been bombing the start but didn't last time and bolted up by 3 lengths-she jumps up 5 points for that but it ought to be 10 at least.She'll be charging late and there should be good speed here.She's 11.0 here with 365 if you can get on otherwise 10.0. I have her at 8.0 so she worth a play-maybe more here.
Advised Bet: Fiftyshadesofgrey 0.65 at 9.0 or better -take the 11.0 if you can get it
Race 7
Mahatma,Loophole and Letchworth all have form that ties in. Cleansing Ale tries an extended trip as he can't win at shorter off his current mark. The value is Ambivalent who I have as joint favourite here at 5.0 with Mahatma. She's consistent goes well around here and gets a very handy 3kg claim. A bit of the pace has come out of this race with the scratchings which is a bit of a worry but from a good gate hopefully she doesn't get too far back early.
Advised Bet; Ambivalent 1 unit at 5.50 or better-take the 6.50 on offer now (if you can get it) for half of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
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