Flemington is a Good 3 and a dry day expected so fast conditions likely.Rosehill is a Slow 6 with plenty of rain around and the likelihood of a track that will deteriorate through the day.Anything I'm doing there will be sent via Twitter.
Flemington
Race 1
2-y-o race so a watching race for me
Race 2
Saint Or Sinner deserves to be on top but at 2.80 he's too short.All of them here have some kind of hope and nothing really would surprise.
Race 3
Prince Of Penzance was good at Mornington but I thought that he was found out late by the 2400m in a strongly run race.Here he is stepping up another 200m!This won't be as frantically run but at 3.20 you don't want to have doubts about stamina.Solid stayers in opposition and a sound case can be made for Cooldini,Gottino and Macedonian.Outback Joe runs his best races here although he's quite highly rated after being raised 13 points for winning the Bagot.Like a Carousel was a strong winner last time and is a thorough stayer but I think he's too short around 5.0
Race 4
Elite Elle is well suited here by the set weights and penalties conditions.At around 3.30 the bookies are letting you on and that's because she's a bit suss on rattling fast ground and she's never been down the straight track before.She's clearly on top form wise.Angels Beach is favourite now around 2.70 and I'll be laying around those prices as apart from Elite Elle I think the rest are very closely matched.
Race 5
Floria is best suited by the set weights and penalties conditions.She's on top but 3.80 for a mare resuming is hardly enticing.Goldslick is a definite hope but is not easy to catch.The bottom 5 here all have some claim and none would surprise.Koonoomoo is a bit "in and out" these days but her second to Red Tracer last prep shows she can still pull out a big run.Pass
Race 6
Seven resume here and 5 of them are noted as very good fresh horses.Straberry boy is one of those and is favourite here at 3.30 probably as he may get a cosy lead.That's far too short in a very open looking race.Apart from Mourinho nothing else would surprise here
Race 7
Three strong chances in Shamus Award (obviously the highest rated as a Cox Plate winner and much fitter for his comeback run),Eurozone (improving and just failed to run down Moment Of Change at G1 level last time) and Hucklebuck (looks a top liner but still has a bit to find on what he's actually achieved so far).Couldn't put you off any of these 3 and can't decide between them.Very confident that the winner comes from these 3
Race 8
Hard race to get a confident angle on despite them all being seasoned performers.Might look to lay one here but not committed yet
Race 9
Akzar really impressed with his attitude last time.it's a bit harder here but apart from Desert Jeurney who is not that well handicapped (raised 19 points for winning at the end of last prep) and Extra Zero (has only 1.5 kg's pull over Akzar for being beaten a length last time) the rest look hard to have.Akzar looks very hard to beat but I won't take shorts about horses that settle out the back.2.10 is very fair if you want to back him but I will be neither backing him or opposing him
Updates via twitter through the afternoon
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