Moonee Valley is a Dead 4 and it may upgrade.Canterbury has upgraded from a Slow 6 to a Dead 5 and another upgrade is a real possibility.
Moonee Valley
Race 1
Daybreak and Wairoa head the market around 3.30.The claim helps Daybreak and I prefer him to Wairoa who gets back in a race with dubious pace-think he's far too short.London Stripe draws for a good run but has to lump 60kgs.He is hard to catch but I think this track suits him and Arnold has won on him.Around 6.0 on Betfair I think he is the value.
Race 2
First Bloom is a month between runs but I suspect it's a planned freshen rather than an enforced one.There was a suitable race for her here a couple of weeks ago worth 35K but tonight the prize is 80K.She ran very well last February off a similar break when unlucky in Tassie.Text n' Hurley was luckless last time and she is 2.90 against First Bloom at 2.0.Uncertain pace here complicates things.It does look one of these two but the speed map is uncertain so I'm probably staying out.
Race 3
Not an easy race to evaluate confidently.Coronation Shallah improved every run in her first prep.She's 13 points higher now than when she raced last and resuming.That 13 point rise is a tad deceiving and she's is likely to be very competitive off the new mark.You Can Dance had all the favours in front last and there will be more pressure this evening-the claim offers some relief and she is well placed here.Apart from Chinzia, Tykook and Misscatelli nothing would surprise here.
Race 4
Signoff on top clearly but at around 3.20 he's priced accurtately I think.There is pace here so the wide barrier shouldn't inconveniece him too much.No fat in the odds though.
Race 5
If I knew Snitzem was 100% ready to fire I'd be keen on him here but he's first up for Waller and he finished off last prep with an infection.He's speedy but there is a lot of pace here so in those circumstances you need to sure that the fitness levels are there.Let's Rocknroll looks a chance but is short at 2.60 considering the upfront pressure.Go The Knuckle races well here and he will be strong late.Probably passing here.
Race 6
Miss Promiscuity looks better than the other locals so looks to have only the WA raider Miss Rose De Lago to overcome here.Evens and 4.50 respectively looks about right to me.
Race 7
Three serious chances.Travolta is game and consistent but has to carry 60kgs and conceed 6kgs to both Big Memory and Use The Lot.May be a bet here and I'll advise on Twitter a few minutes prior to the race.
Race 8
Reddamour is a live hope but barrier 1 around here can be a nightmare unless you are up on the speed.2.30 is insanely short and I much prefer Cult Of Isis who is flying at the moment.I'm backing her here at around 5.0/5.50
Advised Bet: Cult Of Isis 1.25 units at 4.20 or better.5.50 with Tatts bet at the moment.Take if you can get it,otherwise monitor closely.
Canterbury advise and late mail from Moonee Valley on twitter .
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