Three G 1's at Caulfield so plenty to look forward too this afternoon.It's posted a Good 3 and the forecast morning showers have stayed away and the radar looks clear.Randwick is posted a Dead 5 and again forecast showers have not arrived and the radar is clear.If and it has to be an "if" after last weeks fiasco that Dead 5 reading at 7am is accurate them it's fair to expect an upgrade to a Dead 4 provided there is no more rain.
Plenty of interest at Randwick this afternoon but only one bet there at this stage
Randwick
Race 6
Leebaz is promising and resumes in a winnable race.He's an on pacer so he's entitled to be at the head of the market.Specific Choice was good last time but still only managed second.Canny Ballad is racing consistently but needs a bit more to break through here.Gamblestown will get a nice run but he looks too short at 6.0.Pillow Talk gets back and needs the breaks but at 13.0 and 3.74 the place I want to have an interest in her.She's run ok on a dead 4 but anything wetter is unknown.Her dam won on a heavy track so I will take the chance that she'll be ok
Advised Bet : Pillow Talk 0.55 units win and place-take the 13.0/3.74 with TAB fixed odds
Caulfield
Race 1
This is an impossible race to map accurately.I won't be backing anything here but I though Kitten On The Run looked a possible lay at current odds of 5.0
Race 2
Not Listentome is very hard to oppose but at odds on I don't want to back him either.Interesting race this with an eye on the rest of the Autumn.
Race 3
Marianne was excellent first up and she is clearly on top but the odds are too skinny to interest me.Can't back her and can't oppose her either
Race 4
Very tricky race to weigh up.Pass here
Race 5
Fiorente has much bigger targets ahead of him so do you want to take 2.25 about a horse who will benefit from the run and probably stand a few of them a fair start?Of course he can win but in a likely tactical affair I want some solid value before playing.Probably passing here unless Pakal gets out a bit (unlikely).
Race 6
I marginally prefer the 3-y-o Bull Point to Moment Of Change here.The early 3.50 has gone now and I have no interest in playing at 2.70.If you got the 3.50 good luck and Moment of Change is now out to 3.95 on Betfair so you might want to have a saver.I have them 3.0 and 3.30 respectively.
Race 7
I don't have many 2-y-o bets although the two I did have last season both won including the winner of this race.Rubick,Earthquake the obvious two them Nayeli,Chivelry and Jabali.Not playing
Race 8
I like the two improvers here in Lankan Rupee and Knoydart.I'm backing both here Lankan at over 3.7 and Knoydart at over 5.0.Currently on betfair they are 4.2 and 5.9 respectively.
Advised Bet : Lankan Ruby 1.4 units at 3.70 or better
Knoydart 1.05 units at 5.0 or better
Monitor on Betfair
Race 9
Arinosa should be better for here luckless reappearance run and will be the one to beat if returning to form.I'd want around 4.50 to consider backing her though and that seems unlikely now.Probably not playing here
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