Flemington is a Good 3 and the BOM has rain forecast but I can see no sign of it on the radar so I'm working on fast Summer ground all day.Rosehill is a Good 3 but it's rained a bit this morning and there is more around so I'm not sure what to expect there.I won't generally bet on deteriorating tracks as the advantage moves very markedly in the layers favour so anything at Rosehill will be sent via twitter.
Flemington
Race 1
Watch and learn
Race 2
Akzar is favourite here by default as negatives attach to all of the others.He's in to 2.66 now on Betfair and I think that is too short although I'll concede it's difficult to be confident about any of the others bar Extra Zero who will be on pace and is probably a viable alternative at around 4.50 if it gets there.Nothing here at this stage but I'll monitor and advise via Twitter if I'm playing
Race 3
Hard to be confident here and I think it is a trappy race
Race 4
Again not a race I'm overly enthusiastic about although it's a decent contest.I think Tackleberry deserves to be on top ahead of Mandla,About Square,Tigerland and King Buddy.There are others that you cannot confidently dismiss too so it's difficult
Race 5
Expect both Solicit and Quayside to improve on what they achieve here today as they get out over further.Sensibility,Scratchy Bottom and Girl In Flight are all in my "blackbook" and are better than their current ratings.Solicit is a very classy filly though so marked improvement is needed to overcome her here.Confusing but very interesting race.
Race 6
The Quarterback was a huge run last time and I don't want to oppose but at 4.0 don't want to play either as he always gets back and there is no certain pace here.Hucklebuck is very smart and he'll have first run on The Quarterback.Prince Harada was very heavily backed last time but ran as though the run would improve him.Good race
Race 7
Samaready is a very good fresh horse and overall her form is the strongest.I'm not backing here at 3.20 though as she is a 4 year old Mare resuming and I'd want better odds in those circumstances.Snitzerland is also a 4 year old Mare resuming and her trial was brilliant.Shamexpress is a very good Flemington horse and Bernabeau looked a horse with a big future when blitzing his rival at the Carnival.He's short enough now at 6.0 for what he's achieved but suspect he'll be competitive.
Race 8
Nevis has good UK and Irish form and he makes it hard to be confident about the race.He wasn't a star over there but he gets in on a lenient mark and has run OK around this trip.Great Lane has been steadily progressive before getting too far back last time.
Race 9
Decircles always looks a live hope but is the type of horse that you can never back with real confidence.Hai Lill and Club Command are both live hopes here,Foundry was just off the best 3 year olds in the UK and Ireland last season.He's very well in here although early markets suggest he may be better for the run.He bolted in first up over this trip in Ireland although that was on a wet track
I haven't played early today so if I'm doing anything I'll advise via twitter
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