Sandown posts a Good 3 and there is a small chance of light rain but I think a going change is unlikely.The Kenso track posts a Dead 4 and it's dry in Sydney so an upgrade is possible.
I'm not going off early in Sydney as there are too many biased tracks at the moment and I was caught out stupidly on Saturday and am not falling for it again.Sydney info will be via twitter until things show some signs of settling down.The Autumn brings rain in Sydney and usually lots of it so track bias looks like being a real headache there for some time yet.
Sandown
Race 1
Northern Cath gets in well with the claim b ut has a wide gate to overcome.It's a tight maiden this one and there are a few realistic hopes here.Not betting
Race 2
Another tight maiden.Reldas has shortened up a fair bit this morning and is around 3.0 now which looks very skinny to me.I thought there were around 8/9 hopes here so if I end up doing anything here it'll be opposing the favourite.Will advise via twitter
Race 3
Typically tricky mares race.Chances in race card order are,Manhattan Maid (better last time),Godspiel (outpaced over a 1000m resuming but worked home well,this suits well second up),Rayhan (had a good prep but rated high enough now but cannot dismiss),Sinhala (keen when led latest but will probably lead again and a hope if settles ok) Itsmycall (forgive latest and sound win prior) Magic Curves (tough game effort last time and real hope if handles extra 100m).
Race 4
Watch and learn
Race 5
I sent a tweet through earlier advising Nella fantasia at 3.40 as I have her rated 3.0 MAX here.The 3.4 is still around.She was good last time over a 1000m coming of a 4 week freshen and the 1200m today suits better.Chelsea Hotel has been found out at metro level in Sydney.Dasilva has a hope if returning to form after a poor run last time.Havanna Sky was good resuming after a long break but this is harder.Pink Zinc was better than the bare result last time but again this is harder.Clearly Nella for me here
Advised Bet: Nella Fantasia 1.65 units at 3.0 or better.Take the 3.4 on offer now for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Race 6
Interesting race but quite a difficult one.Every Faith has good efforts in good races but expect her to want further.Always Rose and NoExcuses Bec both were good winners of Pakenham maidens on the same day.Anyways Rosie ran the better time.Choose has a wide run when winning her maiden in good style.The 2 behind her that day also has awkward runs and are in action earlier in the day so we'll get a better line on her chances after watching how they go.Elle Exite is a hope.Uranie was strong winning a weak maiden.Reddy Cux has form from better races and is drawn to get a good run.The claim gets him in really well here and he deserves to be favourite.I still may have missed the winner here.
Race 7
Turquoise King is going to be hard to beat here.Doubt we have seen the best of him yet.He's a bit short at 2.30 but he's hard to get away from.The Bowler caught a horse in rare form last time and he ran really well-he'll run well again.There are two enigmatic types resuming here in Skawboard Pressure and Most Husbands both of whom can pull out big runs or shockers.I'm wary of both fresh here particularly Skawboard .Seglea Sun and Edge Of War are racing well.Lord Da Vinci is promising and has more to offer.
Race 8
Taiyoo will be better suited here than around MV.He does get baxk though so you are relying on sufficient pace on up front.Calibrate is promising and was given no hope last time-he gets back too.Bernie of Babylon will be on pace and as such is a player here.Maybe something here but not committed yet
Updates via Twitter during the afternoon
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