Flemington stage their Winter Finals day on a track posted a Good 3.It's generally dry and windy in Melbourne so it should be decent fast ground.Rosehill posts a slow 7 but with no rain in sight an upgrade to a Slow 6 looks likely-may even get to Dead 5.
Flemington
Race 5
Riziz is favourite here on the back of a strong win in the Gold Topaz at the Swan Hill carnival.He's won 6 from 18 starts so his wins to runs ratio is very good at 33%.Of those 18 starts 11 have been on Good and they have produced no wins.All six wins are on track with the sting out.It'll be fast here today so with quotes around 2.70 for him I think we are entitled to be looking elsewhere.
Dee Bee Nine was very good winning at Moonee Valley last time (wide run,just kept coming).13.0 is quoted which I find bewildering as I have this one at 5.50.I've gone over the figures again twice but I still have 5.50.
Advised Bet: Dee Bee Nine 0.90 units EACH WAY Centrebet are 13.0 win 3.90 place-Take it
Race 6
The Cleaner has had a change of stables since winning here a fortnight ago and is now with Robert Smerdon.Doubt that will prove to be a negative.He'll cross from out wide to lead again I expect.This race is a bit more difficult than the one he won here last time but he may get a soft lead and he'll probably be fitter.Happy to be with him again.He's on offer at 6.0 and I have him at 4.80 here
Advised Bet: The Cleaner 1.05 units to win at 5.0 or better. Take the 6.0 on offer for 40% of stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance.
Rosehill
Race 4
Secessio had no luck last time and should have won.Hopefully the blog can recoup the losses here.
Clearly on top on my figures at 3.0 and 3.75 is available.
Advised Bet Secessio 1.65 units to win at 3.20 or better.Take the 3.75 available for 33% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
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