Guineas Day at Flemington and Rosehill

I'm a bit off jockey's at the moment particularly the ones who have managed to lose races they should have won when I've had my money down.One of the more frightening things about playing the horses for a living is that your fortunes are entrusted to this bunch of sharp faced midgets.There's a short list I have of riders who really increase my confidence when I'm betting and there is of course a longer list of ones that don't.I'll take a good look at jockeys in one of next week's blogs.
Flemington today is posted a Dead 4 but will upgrade  to a Good 3 with a fine day forecast.It will be fast ground there today.Rosehill is Heavy 8 and with showers around I doubt there is much hope of an upgrade.Let's hope the initial reading of Heavy 8 in accurate.

Flemington

Race 7
All Too Hard comes out of the Australian Guineas and what an open race it is as a result.Plenty of hopes here but the one that appeals as value is Bass Straight.He had a little break before dropping back in trip in the C.S.Hayes here.He was really good over the last 200m then and the step up to the mile is really going to suit today.He was much better there than Albrecht who is listed here at 5.50 whilst Bass Straight is 11.0.It's time David Hayes trained another G1 winner and the excellent Chad Schofield rides.

Race 8
Favourite here is Isabella Snowflake who may be too fast for them but looks a skinny price to me.Eight Bills loves fast ground and is racing well.He had no hope last time after been ridden forward and going far too hard.Today he gets a nice sit behind a likely good speed and get's to have the last crack.7.0 on offer against my rating of 5.50.


Rosehill

Race 3
Carry Me Bluey should have beaten Frozen Rope last time.Apprentice Clipperton keeps the ride but loses the claim-go figure?Let's see if he can ride a better race today.Frozen Rope mighty hard to beat but Bluey is the better value.His wet form in Queensland is good.My rated price is 4.50 and we'll shop best on Betfair with this one.

Race 8
Toydini is the best horse here potentially and also probably.His fresh efforts are good.Last prep he split Albrecht and Tatra at G3 level first up without trialling first.This time he's had an easy trial.He needs a win to get his rating up to be eligible for better races.He'll be finishing powerfully out wide.10.0 is way too big- I have him at 6.0.

Advised Bets

Flemington    Race 7          Bass Straight  0.65 units to win at 7.0 or better-take the 11.0 on offer
                       Race 8          Eight Bills      0.90  units to win at 6.0 or better-TAB offering 7.0

Rosehill         Race 3          Carry Me Bluey   1.10 units to win at 5.0 or better-shop on Betfair
                      Race 8           Toydini              0.85 units to win at 6.50 or better-take the 10.0 on offer

Tweets with updates throughout the afternoon