Flemington & Rosehill Today

Wednesday was a challenging day with 3 seconds.That's rubbed out the profit for the month so some work to do to get back ahead.
Flemington and Rosehill today and dry conditions at Flemington should see an upgrade from a Dead 4 to a Good 3 early on.Rosehill is a Good 3 and although there is a bit of rain around I doubt it will be enough to change the track rating.
I've tried to be earlier today but I'm still later than planned but will have it out by 10am in future.

Flemington

I've found it tough it here today and there are no advised bets.Most of the races make no appeal at all from a betting point of view although I'll be actively laying a few on the exchange.The races that did present as possible betting opportunities are reviewed

Race 5  I though Infinite Energy and Goldstone stood out from the rest form wise here.I think the market has it right putting Infinite Energy on top.At 3.00 and 4.00 respectively they account for 45% of the market and that's fair enough.The problem for both is the gates they draw-1 and 2.Both like to settle back and as such are going to need some luck getting out to challenge.I don't see any value in their current quotes but am struggling to find anything to suggest as a credible threat.No Bet.

Race 7  Elusive King is the obvious here.On offer at 3.30 now out from 3.00.My figures have him 2.70 but only if he's 100% ready to go.He is 4 weeks between runs.The 2000m race here on New Year's Day was the obvious progression for him but he was a no show there and l'm left wondering why.Has he had a slight setback and missed some work?He's drifting out and bookies look keen to "get" him.Watch TVN and hope they talk to P.Moody pre- race to get a clarification on his well being.I will not be backing him however.

Race 8   I like Nella Fantasia but I don't like the gate she's drawn.A few will want to hold good positions here and she's a real chance of been posted wide throughout.There are few progressives ones here too-Folk Rock,Meliora and the intriguing Melting Moment.Also some solid types who can't be discounted so it's all too hard for me.


Rosehill

One of the limitations of this blog is it is done early and some races pose questions that are not easy to answer with any real confidence until much later in the day if at all.Race 3 here today is an example as I'll explain in the notes.Like at Flemington most of the races don't appeal but there is one bet and if you are a regular follower you'll be expecting it.

Race 1  I thought General Peekay had a bit in hand when he won last time-not a lot but a bit more than the margin suggests.A few go forward here and they might set it up for either Chiarmonte or Shivarchi to come over the top of them.I couldn't oppose General Peekay though although at 3.20/3.30 he's about right.If he get's out to around 3.75 I might be tempted to back him but no bet is advised.

Race 3  She's Clean was a bit unlucky last week but at 2.30 she looks too short however this race is very foggy looking due to the questions surrounding Princess Layla and Satruga.Princess Layla looks far too big at 4.80 if she can run to her best.Her 2 best runs were when she had the blinkers on but they come off here after a lifeless effort last time.The tongue tie goes on and McDonald is back aboard.She didn't lead last time and seems better when she does.Sastruga was poor last time but has had a month off so maybe she'll be back refreshed or maybe she'll need the run.She may want the lead here as well and she draws inside Princess Layla so may hold her out.A few questions here that I cannot answer at the moment but which may become clearer as the market develops and we've heard what trainers have to say in pre race interviews.I really want to oppose She's Clean at the cramped odds but cannot justify doing so at this stage

Race 7  I cannot say if Panko would have won last week as she never saw any daylight at all and all you can say with any certainty was that she would have been around the money.This is almost the same scenario as last week but with Secessio thrown in to complicate things a bit.Kukri will go forward and hope for a soft lead like last week-a few of the others may be wise to it and husstle him along a bit more this time.Secessio will need some pace on to win I think he looks a stayer and will win races here but probably over further.He's 3 weeks between runs here and it may be next time for him.Panko we know has a good turn of foot and much as I hate following up on "unlucky" horses I have to play again as the odds are similar or better to last week.4.80 is the best with bookies but they are getting her out on Betfair (5.30 now)just as they did last week so shop there.I've got her at 4.0 again.


Advised Bets

Rosehill  Race 7       Panko  1.25 units to win at 4.20 or better.Shop on Betfair you should get set at 5.0 plus -ask for value don't just take what's offered