A very nice winner at 11.0 last night gets the blog right back on track after a lean couple of weeks.
Australia Day programmes today at Caulfield and Warwick Farm.Caulfield is a Dead 4 but will almost certainly upgrade to a Good 3.Warwick Farm is a Good 3 but has thundery showers possible this afternoon so there is a chance that they may affect the track if they do arrive and are heavy and prolonged.
Caulfield
I cannot really find any early value here today so nothing I can put forward.
Warwick Farm
Race 5 Matignon is favourite here after being blocked for a run last time.She seemed to resent being settled early in that race and fought the rider for the first furlong or so.She's a mare who can still do better but she's been well found in the early markets here at 3.30.Kristy Lee makes more appeal after a very dominant win last time albeit in maiden grade.The drop back to 1200m there really seemed to suit her and she bounded away.Photon Willie who finished third that day has already franked the form with a win on Wednesday.A mark of 67 looks fair and she gets weight from everything else here.She is best priced 5.0 with bookies but is available at longer on Betfair and she should get out to around 5.50 there at some point.I have her rated 4.60.
Race 8 War Charm is favourite here at 4.80.He's a live hope and he ran like he was looking for 1400m last time but the current quote is too short .Far more appealing is the progessive Reunite who has twice obliged for the blog in recent weeks and who keeps being underestimated by the bookies.Once again he draws to get a gun run just behind the speed.The very capable (and fanciable) Kathy O'Hara keeps the ride and I cannot quite understand how he is listed at 11.0 (more generally 10.0) and was a tad bigger earlier.Rock solid 7.0 on my figures so keen to be involved.
Advised Bets
Warwick Farm Race 5 Kristy Lee 1.10 units to win @ 4.80 or better (shop on Betfair and look for 5.50 plus)
Race 8 Reunite 0.75 units to win @ 7.50 or better (11.0 is available
with Bet365 or 10.0 more generally-take the odds on
offer now)
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