Sandown & Wyong Today

I'll make an effort to get this blog out earlier on Wednesdays and Saturdays from now.Price movements today have extracted a lot of the value out of the horses I'm interested in so expect the blog to be up a couple of hours earlier on Metropolitan racedays.
Sandown and Wyong today and dry conditions at both venues so we should expect upgrades from Dead 4 to Good 3 at both tracks.

Sandown

Most of the races can be whittled down to a less than a handful of realistic chances but only two races I'm confident about with early markets.

Race 6  General Offer has been very good winning both starts this prep.He smashed his rivals in a Showcase -72 last time and rises to a Metropolitan  -78 here.He's been raised 5 points to a rating of 71 and I would be pretty confident that a mark of 71 underrates his ability by at least 10 points.He can race on pace and has gate 1 here.The way he let down over the last 200m last time suggests the extra 100m will be all in his favour.I have him at 1.90 and managed to get on at 2.50 plus this morning.He's still available at 2.30 which still represents value.

Race 7  I thought Aliberani was woefully short here at 3.00.She has a chance here but I rate her at 4.80.Much more appealing are Durnford who has placed in city Saturday grade and who won his maiden effortlessly last time.He was sent north for the Brisbane carnival in the Winter but found that a step too far.This grade is ideal for him and Sandown should suit him too.Expect him to be very strong at the finish.Was 5.0 early but now 4.50 against my rated price of 3.80 so still enough there to work with.Denizen is a big improver this prep.He had plenty in hand when winning last time and whilst this is harder I think he's up to it.I have him 5.20 here and 7.50 is available at the TAB.We'll take these two against the field here at collective odds of around 2.80 against my rating of around 2.20.


Wyong

Race 6   Two lightly raced horses here taking on largely fully exposed sorts.Narcissus ran in the Pago Pago and the Slipper as a 2-y-o so it was a surprise to see him kick off his 3-y-o campaign in provincial a maiden here.At 1.85 he got the job done but it was hard work I thought.He's copped a rating of 75 for that win which judged on that performance alone is severe-if he's as good as they thought he was as a 2-y-o then it's fine but I suspect he isn't.Going for a 3kg claimer only reinforces that suspicion.At 2.50 he's too short.Elkay Star is a steady improver.He's won 3 from 9 including the last two and has 4 seconds to his credit.A mark of 65 looks lenient if you go through some of the horses he's raced against.He has pace but doesn't need to lead to win so can let the speed horses drawn outside him cross and track the likely good speed here from his good gate (drawn 4).The Wyong cutaway is insurance against been caught on the fence also.He appeals much more than Narcissus but even so I need better that the 3.0/3.20 on offer currently to be tempted.That's about right I think but we need to getting around 3.40/3.50 to be playing here.If shopping on Betfair I sure it will be available at some stage


Advised Bets

Sandown   Race 6          General Offer    2.60 units to win at 2.20 or better (take the 2.30 on offer now)

Sandown    Race  7        Durnford    1.30 inits to win at 4.10 or better ( take the 4.50 on offer now)
                                       Denizen      0.95 units to win at  5.50 or better (take the 7.50 on offer now)


Wyong       Race 6         Elkay Star   1.55 units to win at 3.45 or better (shop on Betfair for 3.55 plus you should get set there,monitor this market very closely as the fav could be a big blower)