Magic Millions Day Part one

I've had big problems with my computers this morning and as such I am running behind.Fortunately Rosehill is starting late to avoid the midday heat so I'm doing the blog in two parts.There will be an update covering Rosehill at around 1pm.
Magic Millions day up on the Gold Coast.I've never liked this meeting and this year is no exception.
It always looks a bookies benefit and particularly so this year.No thank you.
Flemington however,does make plenty of appeal today.It's posted a Dead 4 but with a fine day I expect an upgrade to a Good 3.


Race 2  I think Genuine Spin is too short here at 2.40 and Streets Of Seattle is too big at 4.40.I've got them much closer at 2.90 and 3.70 respectively.Warwarick,Lucky Angel and Manila Jewel are hopes but will go with Streets Of Seattle here.

Race 3  Again I think the favourite Tuscan Fire is too short here.He had all the favours last time in an easier race than this when left alone in front.He's a very live chance but more like a 2.70 chance than the 2.10 currently on offer.Module seemed to improve for Newitt last time but they revert to Thornton today to get the 3kg's claim.On the Bagot form the claim has him better off with Crafty Cruiser who chased him home but Crafty Cruiser had the better of the argument the previous time.I like Crafty Cruiser he just keeps running his race over and over again.He's generally 6.0 and I have him 4.80

Race 4  Octavia was very dominant last time at Moonee Valley and most unlucky previously.She is speedy enough for the drop back to 1000m not to worry me.Maybe a plus actually.I've got her rock solid 3.0 here so happy to play at 3.70

Race 7 Three against the field here.It Is Written,Gig and Deceiver.Collectively I have these 3 taking up 67% of the book but the current market has them at 54%.In other words I rate the chances off one of the 3 winning at 1.50 and the market rates them 1.83.That's a hefty margin in my favour I believe so I will "dutch" these 3 here.


Advised Bets

Flemington

Race 2          Streets Of Seattle  1.35 units to win @ 3.90 or better (take the 4.50 on offer now)

Race 3          Crafty Cruiser        1.05 units to win @ 5.0 or better  (take the 6.0 on offer for 50% of   the stake and shop on Betfair for better with the other 50%)

Race 4          Octavia                  1.65 units to win @ 3.20 or better (take the 3.70 on offer now)

Race 7          It Is Written            1.40 units to win take the 4.80 on offer now
                     Gig                         1.15 units to win take the 5.50 on offer now
                     Deceiver                 1 unit to win take the 6.50 on offer now


Back later with more