Caulfield and Warwick Farm Today

Caulfield and Warwick Farm today and expect good fast racing ground at both venues.
I wouldn't describe the racing as tricky today as a lot of the races can be narrowed down to 3/4 serious hopes but I've found it impossible to find any value in early markets.So, unfortunately no advised bets today.As I said in my post when reviewing how the blog has done since it started I only put up bets that I'm risking my own money on-if I cannot find any value in early markets we simply have to pass.
The races that interested me today and an explanation of my thinking are as follows:-

Caulfield

Race 1  I like Evens but she does pull hard and this very competitive.Maglissa beat her last time but may have had the favours that day.Hazard was dominant first up but the race was uncompetitive and this is harder-nice filly though.Mrs Hadlee has a hope and Nella Fantasia is improving and has the scope to do much better-the claim and 1400m make her a very live hope.Too hard to call

Race 4  3 serious chances.Khalifa looks a bit short here at 2.20 but he is promising and will probably do better drawn out today in the smallish field.He was cluttered up inside horses last time and he's a big longstrider so maybe he is a bit better than he showed then.Al Aneed looked the winner at the furlong last time but seemed to die on his run.Reportedly lame after.He got very warm beforehand last time and over further and with a steadier pace may get pulling again.I don't want to oppose him here but I don't feel confident backing him at 3.20.Finishing Card found a soft race on Boxing Day and won with a bit in hand -this is much harder but he's a solid performer-might be the value here but I'm not playing at this stage.

Race 6  Tariana got the softest lead imaginable on Boxing Day and she simply had to win.This is a bit harder.She was very easy to back that day which confused me and I still don't know why.She may get a dolly lead again today but something niggles me about her and having foolishly passed her up when she won I'm not playing at 3.20 today.Follonica's a big price at 7.0 but she's been out for a few weeks and I don't know her fitness levels.

Race 7  Like Whisper Downs,Apres,Now and Zen and Crawfish in that order.Struggled to find any real value here though

Race 8  Like Fast and Free and The New Boy but at 3.30 and 4.5 respectively they looked to be priced about right

Warwick Farm

Race 3  Georgey Aeroplane was heavily backed on Boxing Day and bolted in.The 3.5 looks tempting but it's fast ground today and the stats suggest he's best in the wet.Couldn't oppose him though at that price.

Race 4  Sessions is hard to oppose but there is no value at 2.20

Race 5  Samui Lad ran along in front last time and did very well to tough it out.Riva De Lago and Hypurr were both very goodlast time and both are better suited here today.I think these are the 3 main hopes but Tromso ,Merlin Mustang and Thumbtacks are not completely dismissable so I'm passing

Race 6  Disciple was dominant winning last time and is an improved horse this prep.There is no value at 2.60 though but very hard to beat.Privately has the figures to beat him but will get back-has a sound hope though.Gangster's Choice is a live chance on his best form but I'm beginning to doubt his resolve.

Race 7  My Sabeel is the one to beat.she's racing in great heart but this is tougher opposition and 2.6 is rock bottom odds-too short to play