As I mentioned last week some of the Wednesday fixtures in the Summer months have really fallen away quality wise and that is pretty much the case today.
Ballarat Dead 4 posted but expect an upgrade to Good 3.When Sam Hyland walked the track this morning he noted that the inside was a little chopped out and that the track walked best a few horse widths away from the fence.The rail is out a full 13m in the straight here today!He also noted that the ground down the outside of the track seemed firmer.The fence may be well and truly off here today so caution if you are playing early.
It's a typical Ballarat midweek programme.Far from easy overall but I'm happy to play in the last race
Race 8 Two against the field here.Red Rain and Champagne Shisha both come off very decent efforts in Saturday grade at Flemington last time so their chances here are obvious but both are pretty much exposed types and I doubt there is that much improvement to come from either.Tuscan Breeze resumes after a stint in Darwin where he seems to have improved a bit.He's not hopeless if he's fit enough.Bet You She Rocks was very dominant winning her maiden at Sale and I suspect she's going to rate much higher than the 62 she races off here today.A little bit of 5.0 was quickly snapped up but at 4.40 she is still of interest-I have her at 3.75.Vee Force looked a horse with a real future when powering home at Ararat last month.He was backed heavily here a couple of weeks after that but was withdrawn at the start.Last time at Kyneton he was smashed in the betting again but looked all at sea from the moment the gates opened that day and was beaten a long way from home.That was too bad to be true and I'm forgiving him one poor effort.He's a big long strider so maybe Kyneton was too tight or maybe he just had an off day.He's got a Saturday second at Flemington to his credit from last prep and is 5.00 on my figures but can be backed at 9.50 here.
Gosford Heavy 8 here after the big wet earlier in the week.I won't be backing anything here today with all the recent form being on fast ground I'm very wary.The only observation I did have here today was regarding race 4 where Spurtonic has been installed fav around 3.30.I think that's big unders-I have him at 6.00-whether that helps you I don't know.
Advised Bets
Ballarat Race 8 Bet You She Rocks 1.30 units to win @4.00 or better (take the 4.40 now)
Vee Force 1 unit to win @ 5.50 or better (take the 9.50 Bet 365 if you can
otherwise plenty of 8.0 available)
No comments:
Post a Comment