Moonee Valley posts a Good 4 and Randwick a Good 3. Temperatures touching the high twenties and sunny is the forecast for both venues so fast summer ground looks likely.
The card at Moonne Valley is very challenging and there are no bets there.
The feature is the G2 Australia Stakes and Dissident who snagged two G1's last prep resumes. Bookies are offering 1.85 currently but I expect they will want to lay him so no surprise to see "black" figures. On the ratings he's well clear but resuming at 1200m around here and with bigger targets ahead it should be an easy decision for smart punters to pass.
At Randwick in Race 2 Meursault looks very hard to beat but the value has dried up now and Evens looks about the right price.
Race 3 has a strong favourite in Centre Pivot who's having a great prep and produced a career best last time. He's up 6 points for that which is fair enough so easily did he win but more pertinently up 300m in trip. He was strong late last time but the extra distance is a serious query and I rate his chance of running it out at 65%. That's enough to put me off at 2.20 so passing here.
Race 6 is the Listed Australia Day Cup. Oriental Lady's is the obvious after a strong finishing second in the Gosford Cup but I'd want better than current quotes to be interested and really these distance races in Sydney are a graveyard for punters especially if you backing horses that settle off the pace.
Race 7 is another Listed contest this time over a more appealing 1400m.
Spurtonic follows up from his good win at the Magic Millions.He has a dodgy gate to overcome but is only up a point for his last win so if he get's the breaks he's a chance.
A fully fit Ninth Legion would be a serious hope but he may just need the comeback run.
That's A Good Idea almost downed the very promising Ball Of Muscle at Gosford last time but he looks short enough to me at 3.70.
She's Clean was ultra impressive last time coming from last and leaving a weaker field than this in her wake. She was very strong in the market that day which suggests that she must have been going very well at home.Her record at Randwick is good and a repeat of her latest effort ( not at all guaranteed with a 6-y-old mare) will make her very hard to beat. I have her rated 3.50 here and 4.0 is on offer this morning. You should be able to get better than that as the market fluctuates.
Advised Bet: She's Clean 1.45 units at 3.70 or better-monitor betting don't go in too early look for >4.0 at least
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