Sunday 25 January 2015

Australia Day Racing at Sandown & Canterbury

Both Sandown and Canterbury post Good 3. There's been a bit of rain around Melbourne this morning and may be a bit more to come but I doubt it will alter the state of the track too much. Canterbury has a fair bit of rain forecast for today but it hasn't arrived yet and currently the radar is clear. Monitor conditions there later but at the moment things look fine.
I did some research last year going through my figures over many years and they confirmed what I suspected which was that I was showing a modest loss overall on bets placed on public holidays. The natural conclusion to that is to take these days off like the majority of people. Those results were only on back bets though and as I now do most of my business on the "lay" side of the exchange it hopefully makes sense to carry on.

Canterbury shapes up as a pretty unappealing card overall although in the last there Ay No Digas resumes of a handicap mark of 69. I think this horse has some scope to rate a fair bit higher than that and the booking of Bowman is interesting. He's shortened a bit in early markets and providing the track is dry come post time I might be tempted to have a bit on him. Not committed at this stage.

Sandown has a very good card with some decent horses in action.

Race 1
I'm not betting here but I did think that the two at the top of the market Taiyoo and Practised were both a bit of unders. Taiyoo has to step up to an unproven 2400m and Practised rises from BM78 grade to open company.

Race 2
I like The Quarterback but he'll have his work cut out here to beat Shamal Wind who makes a fair bit of appeal here with Dwayne Dunn engaged. Her only fresh miss was last prep when she was bailed up throughout around the Valley. I wish there was some genuine speed in this race but it's a bit inconclusive and it looks like a sit and sprint affair. Both Shamal Wind and The Quarterback are closers so passing is probably the wisest option.

Race 6
This is a good race and it will be a strong form reference for the coming weeks. If Fast Cash can run out 1300m than he'll be hard to beat here as he's fit and flying. He looked very strong to the line at the Valley over 1200m but he did have a "bludge"run there. 1400m found him out at Flemington at the end of his last prep (could have had enough by then) and the pedigree is all speed. Gate 2 may not be any great help to him either as he's got outpaced early in races before. If this was 1200m I'd be playing at 3.70 but I think it's only evens him running out the trip so I think I'm going to pass with a few promising ones opposing.

With Saturday's bet scratched I'm still to get going betting wise this year. Sorry it's all ultra cautious stuff so far but things will pick up soon enough

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