Prix Ganay at Longchamp overnight and a tremendous tussle between the "arc' heroine Treve and the evergreen Cirrus Des Aigles. Treve looked home when she joined Cirrus but the old war horse kept finding and Treve died on her run with the margin a short neck in favour of Cirrus des Aigles at the line. Great race and a rematch at Royal Ascot would see me firmly in Treve's corner as no doubt she will be much fitter. I have been a bit bemused by how little support Dettori has had from trainers in the early part of the European turf season. He's an outstanding rider and he ought to be in huge demand. That said I think his hunger for a big winner got the better of him here-I thought he got there a tad too soon.
The Betfair market on this race was very strange. 45 minutes before the off I had a look at it and Treve was 1.30.The PMU in France had her 1.30 and bookies quotes were generally split between 1.3 and 1.33 with plenty of the larger firms offering 1.33.Sure I was spotting an opportunity to get an earn out of the race I laid Treve for around $10,000 expecting her to get out on Betfair to at least a tick or so above the 1.33 on offer with a lot of bookies and then being able to offload with a healthy trading profit. Despite there been plenty of 1.33 on offer at the off and the french PMU returning her at 1.40 all Treve did was firm on Betfair late.Her Betfair SP was 1.21 (Betdaq the other exchange was 1.20 I believe on the off). Why would anyone chase "unders" like this especially with the winning commission to pay?
What was happening here I asked myself as I examined my burnt fingers. Have bookies become so gutless that they won't take 10/20 grand bet at threes on? Are there some clowns out there happy to have a few grand on Betfair without shopping around for better elsewhere? Are Betfair or their agents active in their own markets forcing the price in and offloading elsewhere at better. I don't accurately know the answer to these questions but the fluctuations in this event defied all logic.
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