Flemington is posted a Dead 4 and it's a fine warm day so you would expect an upgrade.When Sam Hyland walked the track earlier he described it as having a good cushion so just be aware it may actually be a tad slower than a Dead 4-monitor.
Warwick Farm is a Dead 4 and it's showery and there has been a bit of rain around Sydney this morning but it's been around the coastal areas and it's possible the track may avoid any rain at all today and may upgrade.Again,monitor conditions throughout the afternoon.
Public holiday for Anzac day and the second one this week following on from Easter Monday. After Monday I was thinking that I always seem to find the public holiday racing harder work than usual so I decided to go through my results.Over an eight year period I found that on public holidays I actually had a 1.8% loss on turnover.That compares to a profit on turnover of 8.45% overall through those eight years.Those results are only on horses I've backed and do not include any "lay" bets which are showing a profit on public holidays.I've only been laying horses seriously on Betfair over the last couple of years so the sample size is too small to draw any accurate conclusions from.Purely on "back" bets though the figures suggest that I'd actually be much better off having a day off like the majority of people on public holidays as working on them has cost me money over that eight year period.
Taking all that it account maybe I shouldn't be betting today and it does look a trappy day overall.I have backed one however.
Warwick Farm
Race 5
Longma drops in grade and backs up quickly from Saturday.On Saturday he was backed into favourite in a Listed event way stronger than this.I thought he had a mountain to climb there but this is much more suitable.The drop back to 1200m is probably a positive too.Overall he just looks a better grade than opposition he meets today ans I'm happy to be on him.
I tweeted him through earlier and there was some 4.0 on offer then (if your able to get on that is)
Advised Bet Longma 1.65 units at 3.20 or better-generally around 3.50 now-monitor the market.
Any further bets/lays and updates sent via twitter throughout the afternoon
No comments:
Post a Comment