Flemington Saturday

Dry day in Melbourne with a high of 12 degrees forecast. Flemington starts off a Good 4 but it's a breezy morning so it may upgrade at some point.

Race 1
Edediyin ran in some good races in Ireland and started as short as 5.0 in last years Irish Derby. He gave weight and a beating to Kellstorm in Ireland last year and Kellstorm now his stablemate is rated 72 so starting out here off a mark of 74 he is a well handicapped horse. He was hard to rate first up over 1600m as he's obviously been bought as a stayer although he did win his maiden over 1700m as a two year old. If the market remains strong for him he'd have to be a strong chance. Dollar For Dollar makes some appeal but the price has moved from 4.60 yesterday to a best price of 3.80 now. I have him marked at 3.70 so there's no real fat in the price now. I expect him to have enough speed to cross from gate 8 and sit 2/3rd in the run. If he fails to get over or gets back then things will be much tougher for him. Gervais and Lamborghini are next best.

Race 2
Diapason should be unbeaten as in all of the three races she's not won she's been an unlucky loser. This is a tad harder than the race she ran second in last time at Sandown. Newitt is replaced by Ben Thompson which is surely a positive but the negative is the drop back to 1600m as this mare will only get better as her stamina is drawn out. I expect this will be her last run in a very good first prep.
I'd like a chance to retrieve my losses on her but this is a very tricky race and at 3.90 she is too short. The only one I can discount in this race is Forty Nine riddles. None of the others would surprise. Very trappy contest.

Race 4
Portman on top marked 3.80 but he's top priced at 2.80 this morning so I need to look elsewhere for a bet. I don't like horses jumping grades and generally avoid them but occasional I will make an exception and I'm backing Rebellious Lord here. His maiden win was very good and he really quickened up when asked. His comeback run was a good though not as impressive as in the maiden but it was on very testing ground. Back on the dry today suits much better.

Suggested Bet: 0.65 units at 8.50 or better. Have half the stake at 10 with Bet 365 with SPG and monitor on Betfair with the balance.

Race 5
Both Ruby Sea and First Approach map badly and are drifting in betting to around the mark I have them 4.1 and 7.1 respectively. I want a bit more fat than that to play though as there is very little pressure upfront here and Lovani will be getting all the favours. St Franco is a promising horse as is last Sunday's maiden winner Ratoute Yutty and neither of these would surprise.

Race 6
Tricky -1200m down the straight and probably go steady early. Not betting but I have them marked
4.8 Divine Mr Artie, 5.2 Ruettiger, 6.1 Rough Justice, 6.3 Moss And Dale, 6.6 Ozi Choice and 25.0 bar these.

Race 7
Kilimanjaro is rated 90 and if he's to be a live Cups contender he'll need to win a couple of races to get his rating up to get in. He can get one of those wins today. He need not get as far out of his ground as he did when resuming and he should be too classy for these. Pacodali is respected but I'm very keen here.

Suggested Bet: 2.25 units at 2.40 or better-take the 3.20 with Bet 365 SPG for 65% of the stake and the rest at Top Fluc if you can get it otherwise monitor on Betfair

Race 8
Thought Invictum Domina mapped well enough here to be a bet. I have her marked at 5.50 Whyouask, Swampland, Moonlightes Choice (very short!), Princess Of Queens and Special Diva next best in that order.23.0 bar these

Suggested Bet: 0.90 units Invictum Domina at 6.0 or better-take the 7.0 with Bet 365 SPG for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance

Race 9
I'm not committed here but thought Knowable was clearly the one to beat if fit and ready to go first up. I'd need to see some strong market support first before getting involved