Caulfield Saturday

Mild morning in Caulfield with a predicted high of 16 degrees and very breezy. Good 4 is posted but the wind may get it up to a Good 3 at some stage. The wind is blowing from the north so it'll be a factor today and front runners exposed to it are likely to be disadvantaged to a degree. It's hard to be dogmatic as the wind direction can change as can the strength. Currently 35 KMP but monitor what's going on as the afternoon progresses.

 Race 1

I have Sullivan Bay on top here but she's on the drift this morning. As the likely leader she'll have the wind bias to deal with. She's also had a long prep and she was a bit flat at the business end last time. Forgeress, Every Faith and Divine Chills next in that order. Probably a race to sit out.

Race 2
I have Kiwia marked at 2.0 and Charlevoix at 3.90 with these 2 the only ones under double figures. Jocks will be desperate for cover here so they may end up walking along in the early sectionals. Not playing at this stage.

Race 3
Pass

Race 4
Tight handicap but happy to go with Kabrocco from a handy gate where he should get cover but not be too far off the front. It wasn't a pleasant watch if you took the shorts on him last time on the synthetic but I'm happy to put a line through that. I have him at 6.50 so happy to play with 9.50 the best current quote. Written Era (marked 8.3 and Tango Rock (marked 8.70) are next best on my figures

Suggested Bet: 0.70 units Kabrocco AT 7.0 or better. Have 50% of the stake with UBET at 9.50 and monitor on Betfair with the balance

Race 5
I have 3 marked under 10.00 here Poetic Ray at 4.0, Spanish Reef at 4.40 and Meat Traders at 7.20. I can only see upside for Poetic Ray who has plenty of scope to improve over the longer trip here. There is no reason that fast ground should present a problem and he's huge overs. He was 16.0 last night but money is coming now.

Suggested Bet: Poetic Ray 1.25 units at 4.50 or better . Take the 12.0 with Bet 365 with the SPG for 100% of the stake

Race 6
This is tricky. Surely Orachael is too short here around 3.30. she is one of many with a hope here but I have her much bigger. Not a race I like.

Race 7
We had no luck with Revolving Door last time. I have him marked at 2.50 and you should easily get that if the wind is counting against horses racing up front. I need a fair bit better to go in again though so no early bet advised. Nikitas and Wayanka next best

Race 8
If this were 1000m I might be tempted to give Lankan Rupee a go but I suspect the 1200m will find him out first up and I expect him to be easy to back. It's very tight this race. Supido, Keen Array, Savanna Amour, Choclate Holic and Ability all live hopes. I think Savanna Amour is probably the value go but at this stage I'm not involved so no bet advised.

Race 9
I have them marked Galaxy Raider 5.4, Portion Control 5.9, Cosmic Lights 6.7, Reneged 9.5, Black Sheep 10.3, Electric Fusion 12.1 and 18.0 bar these. Probably not playing here.

Good Luck