Sadly no joy to report for the blog.Plenty looked appealing on Saturday with a record eight selections.Award Season kicked the day off well winning in Sydney but it was total frustration thereafter.Wall Street was held up the length of the Flemington straight before getting out very late and coming off third best in a tight finish.Streama managed second but was trounced by Steps In Time and was a bit plain I thought.Riva De Lago looked sure to win 300m out but just couldn't get past a determined Skytrain and went down a head.Mr Moet was hopelessly positioned turning for home in the Australia Cup and he did well to finish off strongly-the first two were dominant though so no real excuses despite another poor ride.Silent Achiever kept on well for fourth without ever really threatening so again no excuses there.Spirit Song rallied gamely after looking well held at the 200m to grab second in a very close three way finish.Star Of Giselle kicked for home at the 300m and clearly looked the winner but tied up late and was headed close home and had to settle for second.
Last week I reported that I'd had my worst week for months and I've followed that with an equally wretched week so the slump continues.All very frustrating with plenty running really well but just failing to land the spoils.I managed a couple of reasonable days on Sunday and Monday but that was operating on the "lay" side of the exchange.Massive work to be done to make this a worthwhile month but I'll be trying my best.
Tuesday, 12 March 2013
Friday, 8 March 2013
Australian Cup,Newmarket,& Chipping Norton Day
Three G1's today so a great day in prospect.
Flemington is a Dead 4 but will quickly upgrade to a Good 3.Warwick Farm is a Good 3 and whilst there may be a light shower or two the track should play fast.
Flemington
Race 4
Puissance De Lune resumes and has been backed into around 3.50 already.Last prep he resumed of a marl of 78 over this trip and ran an eye catching fifth.Today his mark is 105 so he has to improve on his first up effort last prep by around 30/35 points if he's to be competitive.Considering he has bigger fish to fry later this prep and will almost certainly not be 100% would up today I think we need to look elsewhere for the winner.Wall Street was outpointed by Dany The Fox in the Seymour Cup running really well but the concession of 6kg's proving too much and he was 1.8 lenths down at the line.Today he meets Dany on 9kg's better terms.Wall Street is a very consistent performer his progress has plateaued but he consistently runs to his rating but struggles to win under handicap conditions as a result.The set weight here are all in his favour.
Race 6
Green Moon and the 3-y-o Super Cool head the market for the Australia Cup.Both are too short on my figures.Glass Harmonium is overs at 11.0 as he'll be on pace and if it's slow in the right place.Mawingo is also overs at 9.50 but I'm passing on both and backing Mr Moet once again.Flemington should suit better than Caulfield and he's very fit now.He keeps improving every run and just needs some luck in the run here from the wide gate.
Race 8
Spirit Song kept up her improvement last prep.He first up effort was very encouraging and she'll be much fitter today.The set weights here really suit her and Hi Belle.Both have awkward gates to deal with but they are bit ahead of the opposition quality wise and 4.40 Spirit Song looks the most attractive option against my rating of 3.70.The excellent C.Williams rides.
Race 9
Three hopes here,Star Of Giselle,British General and Sheila's Star and I like them in that order.Star of Giselle wasn't fully wound up when winning on her reappearance according to her trainer so fitter today she is the one to beat here.I have her a 3.40 chance here.
Warwick Farm
Race 1
Award Season is astayer with a future and I'll be surprised if he can't knock this lot off comfortably.The Mornington Cup last time was a "bridge too far" but a sound fifth there makes him mighty hard to beat here.2.05 available against my rating of 1.70
Race 3
Streama is the best Mare here and fitter for her recent good second is the one to beat here.The market has Steps In Time favourite but I have them the other way around.Streama 2.70,Steps In Time 3.50.
Race 5
Riva De Lago is back in the good books after winning at nice odds last time.With question marks over all the field here he is at least in career best form.A slight niggle is that he may be best at his home track Rosehill and I'd be more confident there than here.But at around 4.0 he's worth a play
Race 7
A lot of these are getting to the twilight of their careers.Silent achiever still I think has more to offer and I'm keen on her chances here.She's been backed so the cream has mostly gone but at 5.0 plus I will be playing.
Advised Bets
Flemington Race 4 Wall Street 1.40 units to win at 3.70 or better
Race 7 Mr Moet 1 unit to win at 5.0 or better
Race 8 Spirit Song 1.35 units to win at 3.90 or better
Race 9 Star Of Giselle 1.45 units to win at 3.60 or better
Warwick Farm Race 1 Award Season 2.95 units to win at 1.80 or better
Race 3 Streama 1.85 units to win at 2.85 or better
Race 5 Riva De Lago 1.30 units to win at 4.0 or better
Race 7 Silent Achiever 1.10 units to win at 5.0 or better
Shop around today.It's carnival time and bookies will be betting to low margins so monitor markets.
Any further news will be "tweeted" throughout the afternoon
Flemington is a Dead 4 but will quickly upgrade to a Good 3.Warwick Farm is a Good 3 and whilst there may be a light shower or two the track should play fast.
Flemington
Race 4
Puissance De Lune resumes and has been backed into around 3.50 already.Last prep he resumed of a marl of 78 over this trip and ran an eye catching fifth.Today his mark is 105 so he has to improve on his first up effort last prep by around 30/35 points if he's to be competitive.Considering he has bigger fish to fry later this prep and will almost certainly not be 100% would up today I think we need to look elsewhere for the winner.Wall Street was outpointed by Dany The Fox in the Seymour Cup running really well but the concession of 6kg's proving too much and he was 1.8 lenths down at the line.Today he meets Dany on 9kg's better terms.Wall Street is a very consistent performer his progress has plateaued but he consistently runs to his rating but struggles to win under handicap conditions as a result.The set weight here are all in his favour.
Race 6
Green Moon and the 3-y-o Super Cool head the market for the Australia Cup.Both are too short on my figures.Glass Harmonium is overs at 11.0 as he'll be on pace and if it's slow in the right place.Mawingo is also overs at 9.50 but I'm passing on both and backing Mr Moet once again.Flemington should suit better than Caulfield and he's very fit now.He keeps improving every run and just needs some luck in the run here from the wide gate.
Race 8
Spirit Song kept up her improvement last prep.He first up effort was very encouraging and she'll be much fitter today.The set weights here really suit her and Hi Belle.Both have awkward gates to deal with but they are bit ahead of the opposition quality wise and 4.40 Spirit Song looks the most attractive option against my rating of 3.70.The excellent C.Williams rides.
Race 9
Three hopes here,Star Of Giselle,British General and Sheila's Star and I like them in that order.Star of Giselle wasn't fully wound up when winning on her reappearance according to her trainer so fitter today she is the one to beat here.I have her a 3.40 chance here.
Warwick Farm
Race 1
Award Season is astayer with a future and I'll be surprised if he can't knock this lot off comfortably.The Mornington Cup last time was a "bridge too far" but a sound fifth there makes him mighty hard to beat here.2.05 available against my rating of 1.70
Race 3
Streama is the best Mare here and fitter for her recent good second is the one to beat here.The market has Steps In Time favourite but I have them the other way around.Streama 2.70,Steps In Time 3.50.
Race 5
Riva De Lago is back in the good books after winning at nice odds last time.With question marks over all the field here he is at least in career best form.A slight niggle is that he may be best at his home track Rosehill and I'd be more confident there than here.But at around 4.0 he's worth a play
Race 7
A lot of these are getting to the twilight of their careers.Silent achiever still I think has more to offer and I'm keen on her chances here.She's been backed so the cream has mostly gone but at 5.0 plus I will be playing.
Advised Bets
Flemington Race 4 Wall Street 1.40 units to win at 3.70 or better
Race 7 Mr Moet 1 unit to win at 5.0 or better
Race 8 Spirit Song 1.35 units to win at 3.90 or better
Race 9 Star Of Giselle 1.45 units to win at 3.60 or better
Warwick Farm Race 1 Award Season 2.95 units to win at 1.80 or better
Race 3 Streama 1.85 units to win at 2.85 or better
Race 5 Riva De Lago 1.30 units to win at 4.0 or better
Race 7 Silent Achiever 1.10 units to win at 5.0 or better
Shop around today.It's carnival time and bookies will be betting to low margins so monitor markets.
Any further news will be "tweeted" throughout the afternoon
Thursday, 7 March 2013
Cranbourne & Canterbury Tonight
Evening racing at Cranbourne and Canterbury.Cranbourne is upgraded from a Dead 5 to a Dead 4 and I understand that it has had a fair bit of water on it so just monitor it early.Canterbury is now a Good 3 and expect fast ground there.
Nothing appeals from early markets at either meeting but both are interesting cards and some opportunities may come along.
I'll "tweet"through updates through the evening.
Nothing appeals from early markets at either meeting but both are interesting cards and some opportunities may come along.
I'll "tweet"through updates through the evening.
Denis
I had intended to post a blog this week about jockeys but I've been sidetracked and completely stunned by news from Victoria.State Minister for Racing the seemingly genial but hopelessly incompetent Denis Napthine has bewilderingly been elected Premier of Victoria.I've been left headscratching enough times by Australian political maneuverings to know by now that it throws up stuff that can leave you totally "gobsmacked" but I couldn't believe my ears last night when the ABC news reported that Denis had been elected as a "consensus" leader to replace departing Premier Ted Ballieu.The Victorian Liberal party have been here before electing Denis as leader after the resignation of Jeff Kennet in 1999.It was a disaster and support quickly evaporated like Lake Eyre in a drought.
As Racing Minister Denis was well loved by racing's "participants" generously supporting all manner of schemes designed to enrich the already well heeled Breeding,Owning and Training fraternity all of it with public money that could and should have been allocated to areas of real need.I'd rather thought he was simply batting it out until he could take up some sinecure at RVL or other prominent racing authority as a reward for his determination to allocate the maximum amount racing funds to those who already have plenty of their own.Now he's got the top job in Victoria!
I know the current State Government in Victoria is the the worst in living memory and something really had to change but Denis?
As Racing Minister Denis was well loved by racing's "participants" generously supporting all manner of schemes designed to enrich the already well heeled Breeding,Owning and Training fraternity all of it with public money that could and should have been allocated to areas of real need.I'd rather thought he was simply batting it out until he could take up some sinecure at RVL or other prominent racing authority as a reward for his determination to allocate the maximum amount racing funds to those who already have plenty of their own.Now he's got the top job in Victoria!
I know the current State Government in Victoria is the the worst in living memory and something really had to change but Denis?
Tuesday, 5 March 2013
Sandown & ATC at Newcastle Today
Sandown is a Dead 4 but expect an upgrade quickly to a Good 3.Newcastle was a Slow 6 this morning but it's up to Dead 4 now which suggest the initial reading was wrong.Dry day there so it may be Good soon?
Difficult day looking for ones to back.Nothing I've backed early today so no advised bets.A few possible plays as the day evolves.I'll "tweet" anything I think worthwhile.
Difficult day looking for ones to back.Nothing I've backed early today so no advised bets.A few possible plays as the day evolves.I'll "tweet" anything I think worthwhile.
Sunday, 3 March 2013
Weekend Round Up
No joy for the blog on Saturday.
Bass Straight ran well to finish fifth after meeting interference entering the straight-he should have been placed but doubt he would have won.Eight Bills was chopped out badly in the last 200m but again may have placed but wouldn't have won.Carry Me Bluey copped another poor ride from Clipperton but ran out of stamina so no real excuses there.Toydini was lengths last after 400m on a day when it was virtually impossible to run on so I was astonished to see him get within 2.2 lengths of the winner.
Slumps are inevitable when punting and I'm in one at the moment after registering my worst week of losses for months.I've managed to lay a few too many winners and in fact have layed a handful this week that only went down in very close finishes so it could have been much worse.Hopefully this will only be a "mini slump" and two or three winners over the next few days will have things back on the rails again.The last time I endured a "major slump" was around August/September/October 2010.That was the most difficult time I've experienced betting since the middle of 1989 when I actually stopped betting at the end of June and went away to sort out my personal life which had imploded.When "major slumps" happen they are very mentally and emotionally challenging as once you lose that innate confidence in your abilities you are done for.Obviously lean spells are no fun but having been through it all before experience tells you that providing you stay focused,consistent and confident things will swing back in your favour eventually.Hopefully,sooner rather than later.
Bass Straight ran well to finish fifth after meeting interference entering the straight-he should have been placed but doubt he would have won.Eight Bills was chopped out badly in the last 200m but again may have placed but wouldn't have won.Carry Me Bluey copped another poor ride from Clipperton but ran out of stamina so no real excuses there.Toydini was lengths last after 400m on a day when it was virtually impossible to run on so I was astonished to see him get within 2.2 lengths of the winner.
Slumps are inevitable when punting and I'm in one at the moment after registering my worst week of losses for months.I've managed to lay a few too many winners and in fact have layed a handful this week that only went down in very close finishes so it could have been much worse.Hopefully this will only be a "mini slump" and two or three winners over the next few days will have things back on the rails again.The last time I endured a "major slump" was around August/September/October 2010.That was the most difficult time I've experienced betting since the middle of 1989 when I actually stopped betting at the end of June and went away to sort out my personal life which had imploded.When "major slumps" happen they are very mentally and emotionally challenging as once you lose that innate confidence in your abilities you are done for.Obviously lean spells are no fun but having been through it all before experience tells you that providing you stay focused,consistent and confident things will swing back in your favour eventually.Hopefully,sooner rather than later.
Friday, 1 March 2013
Guineas Day at Flemington and Rosehill
I'm a bit off jockey's at the moment particularly the ones who have managed to lose races they should have won when I've had my money down.One of the more frightening things about playing the horses for a living is that your fortunes are entrusted to this bunch of sharp faced midgets.There's a short list I have of riders who really increase my confidence when I'm betting and there is of course a longer list of ones that don't.I'll take a good look at jockeys in one of next week's blogs.
Flemington today is posted a Dead 4 but will upgrade to a Good 3 with a fine day forecast.It will be fast ground there today.Rosehill is Heavy 8 and with showers around I doubt there is much hope of an upgrade.Let's hope the initial reading of Heavy 8 in accurate.
Flemington
Race 7
All Too Hard comes out of the Australian Guineas and what an open race it is as a result.Plenty of hopes here but the one that appeals as value is Bass Straight.He had a little break before dropping back in trip in the C.S.Hayes here.He was really good over the last 200m then and the step up to the mile is really going to suit today.He was much better there than Albrecht who is listed here at 5.50 whilst Bass Straight is 11.0.It's time David Hayes trained another G1 winner and the excellent Chad Schofield rides.
Race 8
Favourite here is Isabella Snowflake who may be too fast for them but looks a skinny price to me.Eight Bills loves fast ground and is racing well.He had no hope last time after been ridden forward and going far too hard.Today he gets a nice sit behind a likely good speed and get's to have the last crack.7.0 on offer against my rating of 5.50.
Rosehill
Race 3
Carry Me Bluey should have beaten Frozen Rope last time.Apprentice Clipperton keeps the ride but loses the claim-go figure?Let's see if he can ride a better race today.Frozen Rope mighty hard to beat but Bluey is the better value.His wet form in Queensland is good.My rated price is 4.50 and we'll shop best on Betfair with this one.
Race 8
Toydini is the best horse here potentially and also probably.His fresh efforts are good.Last prep he split Albrecht and Tatra at G3 level first up without trialling first.This time he's had an easy trial.He needs a win to get his rating up to be eligible for better races.He'll be finishing powerfully out wide.10.0 is way too big- I have him at 6.0.
Advised Bets
Flemington Race 7 Bass Straight 0.65 units to win at 7.0 or better-take the 11.0 on offer
Race 8 Eight Bills 0.90 units to win at 6.0 or better-TAB offering 7.0
Rosehill Race 3 Carry Me Bluey 1.10 units to win at 5.0 or better-shop on Betfair
Race 8 Toydini 0.85 units to win at 6.50 or better-take the 10.0 on offer
Tweets with updates throughout the afternoon
Flemington today is posted a Dead 4 but will upgrade to a Good 3 with a fine day forecast.It will be fast ground there today.Rosehill is Heavy 8 and with showers around I doubt there is much hope of an upgrade.Let's hope the initial reading of Heavy 8 in accurate.
Flemington
Race 7
All Too Hard comes out of the Australian Guineas and what an open race it is as a result.Plenty of hopes here but the one that appeals as value is Bass Straight.He had a little break before dropping back in trip in the C.S.Hayes here.He was really good over the last 200m then and the step up to the mile is really going to suit today.He was much better there than Albrecht who is listed here at 5.50 whilst Bass Straight is 11.0.It's time David Hayes trained another G1 winner and the excellent Chad Schofield rides.
Race 8
Favourite here is Isabella Snowflake who may be too fast for them but looks a skinny price to me.Eight Bills loves fast ground and is racing well.He had no hope last time after been ridden forward and going far too hard.Today he gets a nice sit behind a likely good speed and get's to have the last crack.7.0 on offer against my rating of 5.50.
Rosehill
Race 3
Carry Me Bluey should have beaten Frozen Rope last time.Apprentice Clipperton keeps the ride but loses the claim-go figure?Let's see if he can ride a better race today.Frozen Rope mighty hard to beat but Bluey is the better value.His wet form in Queensland is good.My rated price is 4.50 and we'll shop best on Betfair with this one.
Race 8
Toydini is the best horse here potentially and also probably.His fresh efforts are good.Last prep he split Albrecht and Tatra at G3 level first up without trialling first.This time he's had an easy trial.He needs a win to get his rating up to be eligible for better races.He'll be finishing powerfully out wide.10.0 is way too big- I have him at 6.0.
Advised Bets
Flemington Race 7 Bass Straight 0.65 units to win at 7.0 or better-take the 11.0 on offer
Race 8 Eight Bills 0.90 units to win at 6.0 or better-TAB offering 7.0
Rosehill Race 3 Carry Me Bluey 1.10 units to win at 5.0 or better-shop on Betfair
Race 8 Toydini 0.85 units to win at 6.50 or better-take the 10.0 on offer
Tweets with updates throughout the afternoon
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