Flemington is a Good 3 and any rain is not expected until the evening so expect fast conditions.
Randwick is a Dead 4 and there is a bit of patchy rain around on the satellite. There is a chance of an upgrade later-monitor.
Some of the better horses making their way back today and the quality will begin to pick up week by week from now on.
Randwick
I want to see how this track is playing here today before committing. The two I definitely am interested in are quite tight to my figures at the moment so I'm not going in until I'm happy with the prevailing conditions.There may be no bias today but based on how Randwick has performed over the last few months bias is more likely than not-we'll see.
Flemington
Race 2
I'm keen on Eclair Samba here but I'm hoping he'll get out a tad in betting at some point. 2.80 is the best offer around at the moment and I have him at 2.60. There is value there but there may be better to come.
Advised Bet: Eclair Samba 1.90 units at 2.80 or better -have 25% of the stake at 2.80 and monitor with the balance but don't wait too long -3.0 is good if it gets there.
Race 4
I don't normally get involved with these early season 3-y-old races but Raposo is way overs here. I doubt he was suited racing in restricted room on the fence here last time. He gave Imaging a thumping on debut and that horse bolted up on Wednesday.There are a few possibilities here as there usually are in these ultra competitive 3-y-old races but this should be any bigger than 6.0 here.
Advised Bet: Raposo 0.80 units at 6.50 or better-take 9.0 on offer
Race 5
Cleverdude did look good winning on his first start for D.Weir but that wasn't anything like as strong as this and I think he's too short now-concede he's a real chance if he can go on with it but he has had problems and second up is a risk especially at 3.50. The value runners are - Cross Of Gold who has improved this prep admittedly on the synthetic but he looked a horse of promise and he's worth chancing at odds and, Theatreman another promising type who bolted up on his comeback run.
Advised Bets: Cross of Gold 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-take the 13.0 on offer
Theatreman 0.65 units at 9.0 or better-monitor betting-is 12.0 for bits on Betfair
There will almost certainly be more today and Bets/Updates sent via twitter
Reminder:
This will be the last month that I continue this way-blog bets and bets
sent via Twitter. From September for 3 months I am trialing a members
service where the advised bets will go out by sms. That takes in the
Australian Spring Carnival and all the fantastic European Autumn action.
Members will get an email on the days when bets are likely advising the
possibility of bets in certain races and these will be confirmed by
sms. I have had a few requests to start up a private service but I
wanted to run the blog for a while so people can see that it is
genuinely profitable over time. After almost two years I think I've done
that emphatically.
Membership will be capped at 30 members and that number will never
increase.The initial cost will be $100 per month or $200 if you
subscribe for the whole 3 months. December I am taking off and if things
have worked out OK the service will resume in January. Anyone
interested in joining the service should email me:
maxblakey@rocketmail.com and I will email back full details. Your email
address will never be passed on to third parties.
The blog will continue after this month and I'll still look at a race or two on the better days and pass on anything worthwhile.
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